2020 IDP Busts (Redraft)

I always hesitate to use the word "bust" because readers often associate that word with players who will have a very poor season. I prefer to use the word "overvalued" instead. As a drafter, this is what I am always looking for: value. If a player is going two rounds higher than I projected him at, I'm not going to draft him, no matter if I think he's going to have a good season or not.

In this article, I recommend three defensive linemen, three linebackers, and three defensive backs who I believe will be overvalued heading into the 2020 fantasy season.

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I will periodically update these throughout the off-season to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, playing time, draft selections, etc. However, keep in mind that the information listed here is just a small sample of a much larger set of rankings and descriptions that are accessible through purchasing my 2020 IDP Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 1.5 points
Assist = 0.75 points
Tackles for Loss = 2 points
Sack = 4 points
Interception = 5 points
Forced Fumble = 4 points
Fumble Recovery = 4 points
Pass Deflection = 1.5 point
Defensive TD = 6 points
Safeties = 2 points


DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
1Yannick Ngakoue DE - JAC (7), +5 vs. ECR 
Avoid
2019 saw a change in Ngakoue's production as his sack numbers reduced a bit but that was more than made up by a rise in tackle numbers. This was a change for the better but we need to carefully monitor Yannick's situation heading into 2020. He has expressed a lot of discontent with the Jaguars franchise and has demanded a trade despite being under the franchise tag. This obviously makes him a risky pick as he could holdout or get traded to a new defensive team/scheme at any moment. This said, he's likely a player I will avoid in drafts unless he falls into the DL2- range.

2Dee Ford DE - SF (11), -26 vs. ECR 
Avoid
When healthy, Ford is one of the league's premier pass rushers. But he's had fairly significant injury issues in recent years and given the 49ers abundance of pass-rushing options, it seems likely the team will continue to limit his snaps to pass-rushing situations. This will ultimately have a detrimental effect on his tackle production and limits him to a sack-reliant, DL3 matchup play in his best weeks.

3Matt Ioannidis DE - WAS (8), -21 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Ioannidis is coming off a sneakily great fantasy season in which he compiled a 43/21/8.5 stat line. However, with an astounding five first round picks on the defensive line now, he's likely going to find himself in a backup role this year. The reduced snap counts will inevitably lead to a decline in production and to Ioannidis underperforming his current ADP.


LINEBACKERS
1Tremaine Edmunds LB - BUF (11), -6 vs. ECR 
Avoid
I don't tend to value Edmunds as strongly as others. In his two years in the league, he's averaged just 72.5 solo tackles a year which is an underachievement given his opportunity and generous home stat crew. He actually took a little step back last year and only had two games with seven or more tackles. But he's still only 22 years old and has nowhere to go but up, so he's not a huge risk at his current ADP.

2Eric Kendricks LB - MIN (7), -9 vs. ECR 
Avoid
I constantly see Kendricks ranked within the top 25 linebackers (even top 20 sometimes) and I don't understand why. He's a very consistent player but has failed to eclipse 73 solos in any season since entering the league in 2015 and he's fairly standard when it comes to big play production. Great example of a player who's actual on-the-field talent outweighs his fantasy value.

3Kwon Alexander LB - SF (11), -15 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Outside of a standout 2016 sophomore campaign, Alexander has failed to make much fantasy impact during his career. He's missed good portions of the last three seasons due to injury and has the emerging Dre Greenlaw pushing him hard for subpackage snaps and his weak side role. Alexander is an example of a player whose name is bigger than his actual fantasy worth.


DEFENSIVE BACKS

1Minkah Fitzpatrick S - PIT (8), +6 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Don't get me wrong, I love Minkah Fitzpatrick as a player. He's just not the type of fantasy player I tend to gravitate towards. Being a roamer, he's unlikely to eclipse 55 solo tackles in a season and is heavily dependent on producing big plays. Using this type of draft capital and relying on him getting a similar number of splash plays to last year (5 interceptions, 3 FFs, 2 FRs, 2 DTDs) makes me nervous.

2Justin Reid S - HOU (8), -8 vs. ECR 
Avoid
The emergence of Zach Cunningham as a tackling machine among the Texans' linebacker core ultimately hurt Reid's production in those categories. His tackle production was down 15% versus last year and he wasn't able to make up for it via the big play. He has the talent to put several big plays on the board, but we just haven't seen that come to fruition yet and I fear he may be stuck in the DB3 boom/bust tier.

3Hasean Clinton-Dix S - DAL (10), -3 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Clinton-Dix has been a consistent Top 25 DB and even has a few DB1 years under his belt. This said, his appearance on this list may seem strange to some. For me, the Dallas landing spot is less than ideal as they've failed to produce a fantasy relevant safety in quite a few years (outside of the anomaly of Barry Church). HCD may find it more difficult to generate big plays on a defense that has really struggled to produce in that area historically and his tackle numbers won't likely be up playing behind three strong tackle-producing linebackers.


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Questions, comments, or concerns with any of these rankings? If so, please let me know by posting a comment below or emailing me at theidpguru@idpguru.com. You can also hit me up on Twitter


Last Updated: August 1, 2020
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