2019 IDP Busts (Redraft)

I always hesitate to use the word "bust" because readers often associate that word with players who will have a very poor season. I prefer to use the word "overvalued" instead. As a drafter, this is what I am always looking for: value. If a player is going two rounds higher than I projected him at, I'm not going to draft him, no matter if I think he's going to have a good season or not.

In this article, I recommend three defensive linemen, three linebackers, and three defensive backs who I believe will be overvalued heading into the 2019 fantasy season.

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I will periodically update these throughout the off-season to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, playing time, draft selections, etc. However, keep in mind that the information listed here is just a small sample of a much larger set of rankings and descriptions that are accessible through purchasing my 2019 IDP Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 1.5 points
Assist = 0.75 points
Tackles for Loss = 2 points
Sack = 4 points
Interception = 5 points
Forced Fumble = 4 points
Fumble Recovery = 4 points
Pass Deflection = 1.5 point
Defensive TD = 6 points
Safeties = 2 points


DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
1Melvin Ingram DE - LAC (12), -7 vs. ECR 
Avoid
By most accounts, Ingram underwhelmed last year. Some may point to the fact that the team was without Joey Bosa for the first 10 weeks and that caused Ingram to face more double-teams, but Ingram's numbers were actually worse after Bosa returned. He compiled just 1.5 sacks over his last seven contests. This makes Ingram a player that I'm not overly excited to have on my team this season.

2Kawann Short DE - CAR (7), +1 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Short exploded onto the IDP scene with an 11-sack season back in 2015. He followed that up with two solid, albeit lesser, fantasy seasons in 2016 and 2017 before his sack totals plummeted last year. The simple truth is the Panthers rotate their defense lineman too much for Short to be a high impact player and the switch to a 3-4 may further drive down Short's value as he moves into a traditionally less productive 5-technique role.

3Yannick Ngakoue DE - JAC (10), -16 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Ngakoue has impressively racked up 29.5 sacks in his first three seasons in the league and is now recognized as one of the AFC's best pass-rushing specialists. He's not expected to defend the run often, so his tackle numbers won't be great and he's going to lose snaps to first round pick Josh Allen this year. This said, it's quite likely we see a regression in his box score production which makes him a player to avoid in my book.


LINEBACKERS
1Kiko Alonso LB - MIA (5), -4 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Alonso is coming off the best statistical season of his career since his rookie year back in 2013. Although he was great in terms of fantasy, finishing in the top 10-15 in most leagues, he continued to grade out poorly and is facing pressure from youngsters Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker for playing time in subpackages. Additionally, Alonso is currently expected to play on the strong side in Brian Flores' new defensive scheme which is also a risk to his production. Given the injury history, poor coverage skills, position change, and threat of younger players stealing share/time, Alonso will be an avoid for me in most drafts this year.

2Jarrad Davis LB - DET (5), -17 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Davis was a player I listed as an avoid heading into last year's drafts as he's struggled to fully capitalize on his opportunities so far in Detroit (not reading plays correctly, missing tackles, etc.). Although his tackle figures were about what I expected, he managed to salvage most of his fantasy value with six sacks. I don't think that's a number you can bank on again from a middle linebacker though, so he remains someone that isn't likely to find himself on many of my 2019 fantasy teams.

3Alec Ogletree LB - NYG (11), -11 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Ogletree's production last year was buoyed by a whopping five interceptions - a feat I don't believe is repeatable again this season. He's been an underachieving player and someone who has graded out poorly in pretty much every season he's been in the league. So although he's in a prime spot from an IDP production standpoint, I have my doubts that he can properly take advantage to justify his current ADP.


DEFENSIVE BACKS
1Reshad Jones S - MIA (5), -12 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Up until last year, Jones had been a year-in, year-out DB1 dating back to 2012. However, age and injuries have begun to catch up to the former first round pick out of Georgia. The Dolphins have some new, young talent in Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. McDonald has been steadily improving in recent seasons which makes Jones all that more expendable and has made his standing with the team tenuous to say the least. Given all the unknowns around him, he's a tough player to draft as a DB1 anymore, but if he falls towards the bottom end of the DB2 tier, he may be worth a shot for those risk-oriented fantasy players.

2Antoine Bethea S - NYG (11), -9 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Bethea has been one of fantasy's most consistent DB2s during his career - registering 70+ solo tackles in 9 of his last 11 seasons and set a career high just last year with a whopping 100 in that category . Despite his age (34), he has a good shot of continuing that 70+ solo streak playing half of his games at Metlife Stadium - the league's most friendliest stat crew. However, he's been playing in a deep safety role so far with his new team which is bound to restrict his tackle production a bit, so he's not likely to come anywhere close to last year's monster tackle numbers. Add in the fact that he's never been much of a big player maker, and you are a looking at a player best served as a middle to low-end DB2.

3Kareem Jackson CB - DEN (10), +11 vs. ECR 
Avoid
Jackson didn't possess a ton of fantasy value until last year where he put up career stats bouncing between safety and cornerback for the Texans. This said, he seems like a situation-dependent fantasy player to me. And the move to Denver isn't a good one from that standpoint as they've failed to produce many viable safety options the last handful of seasons (excluding perhaps Justin Simmons). He's a player that's likely to regress from a fantasy perspective in 2019.

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Questions, comments, or concerns with any of these rankings? If so, please let me know by posting a comment below or emailing me at theidpguru@idpguru.com. You can also hit me up on Twitter


Last Updated: August 19, 2019
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