2016 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 13

Hello and welcome back to the IDPGuru.com's most popular in-season article, IDP Waiver Wire Pickups, which will be releasing every Tuesday of the regular season.

Although I'm happy to answer questions posted via the website comments section, IDP Forum, and email, I'm often quickest to respond via Twitter. So if you have IDP questions, it's a good idea to Follow me on Twitter.

Let's start things off by going through some IDP news, notes, and commentary from Week 12 of the NFL season.

Injuries
Mario Addison
was inactive on Sunday after not practicing all week with a foot injury.

DL1-/DL2+ Michael Bennett missed another game as he continues to work his way back from knee surgery. Given his original return timetable and team comments, I would say chances are good he returns this week. How much he plays will be another question.

Jurrell Casey suffered a sprained foot during Sunday's game and did not return. The Titans are heading into their bye week which will give Casey extra time to recover. We will check back in on his status next week.

Adrian Clayborn is expected to miss at least a month after hurting his knee last week. This effectively kills his fantasy value for the 2016 season.


Danny Trevathan ruptured his patellar tendon and is obviously done for the season. This is one of the most difficult injuries to come back from so this is a really though break for Trevathan. Look for John Timu or possibly Christian Jones to take his spot. Nick Kwiatkoski will likely wear the green dot and play every down and is the player to look at here in terms of fantasy value.

Emerging sack master Dee Ford did not play last week due to a hamstring injury. He will need to get 1-2 practices in this week in order to have a good shot at playing in Week 13.

CB2+/CB1- David Amerson was listed as questionable heading into last week's game and wound up not playing. He should be closer to returning this week.

Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas missed the Seahawks game on Sunday with a knee injury. The team will try to get him back for a big game against the Carolina Panthers.

Shawn Williams is struggling with a hamstring injury and was listed as out for the Bengals' Week 12 game against the division rival Ravens. Cornerback Josh Shaw started in his place and compiled a 5-1 tackle line. He could be a sneaky start in leagues that require you to start two cornerbacks if Williams misses another game.


General Player Notes
Ezekiel Ansah continued his string of poor fantasy performances last week generating zero points in most leagues. The good news is he was consistently pressuring the quarterback. I'm confident the sacks are coming soon and that a multi-sack performance is on the horizon.

Eric Kendricks, a typical every-down linebacker, saw his snap count reduced down to 52% last week as he was still struggling with a hip injury. I believe this is solely injury-related but it's hard to say when the Vikings will think he's healthy enough to play the entire game again. He's someone best to avoid starting if you can down the fantasy playoff run.

Korey Toomer continues to play every down with Jatavis Brown out of the lineup. If Brown remains a no-go, Toomer should be rostered and started as he's a good bet for at least LB2 numbers. Denzel Perryman has produced at an above average rate per snap but remains a part-time player and therefore a big risk moving forward.

I thought the Panthers would opt to put Shaq Thompson in the nickel given his athletic ability but they choose to go with A.J. Klein as the every down linebacker next to Thomas Davis instead. This said, Thompson played less than 20 snaps and laid a goose egg in the box scores. Apologies to anyone who started Thompson on my advice, but as we know all too well, coaches throw curveballs at us all the time and sometimes things just don't go the way we predicted. There's always next week...

Barry Church is likely to return this week and should be safe to put back in your starting lineups.

Su'a Cravens was back in a subpackage role against the Cowboys. It seems as though his increase in playing time in Week 11 was more so due to the Green Bay matchup and them using a lot of multiple receivers sets which forced Washington to play in their subpackage defense most of the game. He's someone that can't really be trusted in redraft formats. However, I think he's eventually going to be one of the best fantasy options in the game at the DB position.

Now onto The Guru's IDP waiver wire selections for Week 13!

(Please note that a majority of these pickups early on are long-term, rest of season pickups as opposed to matchup-type recommendations. As the season progresses and the waiver wire becomes more thin and matchup information becomes more reliable, the focus of this article will shift more towards recommendations based on weekly matchup.)

Defensive Linemen
(Previously recommended DLs: Chris Long, Danielle Hunter, Devin Taylor, Dante Fowler, Frank Clark, Timmy Jernigan, Kerry Hyder, Yannick Ngakoue, Damon Harrison, Nick Fairley, Clinton McDonald, Derek Wolfe, Calais Campbell, Joey Bosa, Trent Murphy, Deforest Buckner, Danny Shelton, Willie Young, Joey Bosa, Gerald McCoy, Cameron Wake, Frank Clark, Marcell Dareus, Mike Daniels, Cameron Wake, Adrian Clayborn, Timmy Jernigan, Trey Flowers, Jurrell Casey, Robert Ayers, Stephon Tuitt, Marcell Dareus, Mario Addison)


DE Noah Spence (TB) 
- Spence has performed very well for a rookie defensive end this year, racking up 5.5 sacks with 4.5 of those coming in his last six games. He's seen a significant increase in playing time as of late (~80% last week) and has a great matchup against the Chargers this week who allow the second most points to defensive ends. Strong DL3+ matchup-play.

DE Javon Hargrave (PIT) - Hargrave was forced into the starting lineup after veteran Cameron Heyward went down with a torn pectoral injury. The rookie has responded with a sack in back-to-back weeks. There's always risk with rookie defensive ends as the learning curve at that position is so high it often leads to extreme inconsistency early on in careers. However, teams will likely continue to focus on stopping Stephon Tuitt and the OLB pass rush of the Steelers, leaving Hargrave in one-on-one situations. The matchup this week is one to avoid but the schedule the rest of the fantasy season is much more optimal with 2 top 10 matchups in the last three weeks of the traditional fantasy season. He's a player to pick up and stash for a week or keep in the back of your mind for next week in deeper leagues. 

DE Andre Branch (MIA) -
Branch has seen a bump in playing time with Jason Jones suspended through Week 13. Cameron Wake has been on a tear and is commanding a lot of offensive attention which has freed up Branch to get after the quarterback. He had a strong showing last week with 4 solo tackles and a sack and has a decent chance at repeating that performance this week against the Ravens.



Linebackers
(Previously recommended LBs: Sio Moore, Todd Davis, Tahir Whitehead, Will Compton, Mason Foster, Craig Robertson, Justin March, Jonathan Casillas, Craig Robertson, Zach Brown, Deion Jones, Sean Weatherspoon, Tahir Whitehead, Zach Orr, Denzel Perryman, Bernardrick McKinney, Cory James, Darron Lee, Christian Kirksey, Jatavis Brown, Vince Williams, Cory James, Michael Wilhoite, Christian Kirksey, Nick Bellore, Perry Riley, Lorenzo Alexander, Markus Golden, Nick Bellore, Albert McClellan, Dont'a Hightower, Tyler Matakevich, Jordan Hicks, De'Vondre Campbell, Christian Kirksey, Demario Davis, Nate Stupar, Kiko Alonso, Dont'a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, Nigel Bradham, Korey Toomer, Ryan Shazier, De'Vondre Campbell, Korey Toomer, Gerald Hodges, Chad Greenway, Dannell Ellerbe, Blake Martinez, Gerald Hodges, Leonard Floyd, Jatavis Brown, Danny Trevathan, Shaq Thompson, Su'a Cravens)

LB Justin Houston (KC) -
Houston is a household name by this point in his career but wasn't rostered in a lot of leagues coming into Week 12 as he missed a substantial amount of time with a knee injury. After a monstrous prime time performance on Sunday night (10 solos, 3 sacks, a forced fumble), he's going to be this week's hottest IDP waiver wire pickup. And rightfully so. Although I would consider him matchup independent and the Falcons are top 10 in sacks allowed, he has two very difficult matchups following that in the Raiders and Titans. Just something to keep in mind down the stretch run.

LB Nick Kwiatkoski (CHI)  -
The season-ending injury to Danny Trevathan opens the door for the inexperienced Kwiatkoski to be the team's primary defensive play caller and leader of the defense. He hasn't done much when given the opportunity so far this year but someone has the rack up the tackles for a Bears defense that is on the field a ton - and, Kwiatkoski has the best opportunity to do so. LB4+/LB3- for me.

LB Darron Lee (NYJ) -
Lee finally saw 100% of the defensive snaps and responded with 11 total tackles last week. It's not a sure thing this trend will continue into next week, but I'd say it's more likely than not to happen. This said, Lee makes for a really nice boom/bust play against a Colts team that is allowing the most points to linebackers (due to a mix of strong tackle and way above average sack production).


Defensive Backs

(Previously recommended DBs: Tony Jefferson, Da'Norris Searcy, Shareece Wright, Tyvon Branch, Andrew Sendejo, Kemal Ishmael, Karl Joseph, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Jacoby Glenn, Vonn Bell, Logan Ryan, Kendell Fuller, Clayton Geathers, Duke Ihenacho, D.J. Swearinger, Bashaud Breeland, Rodney McLeod, Isa Abdul-Quddus, Donte Whitner, DeShawn Shead, Michael Thomas, Troy Hill, Bradley McDougald, Robert Blanton, Daniel Sorensen, Bradley Roby, Phillip Gaines, Andrew Adams, Kevin Byard, Bashaud Breeland, Byron Jones, Jimmie Ward, Jacquiski Tartt, Patrick Chung, Rashaan Melvin)

CB Daryl Worley (CAR) -
Despite five strong fantasy weeks in a row, Worley is available in a lot more leagues than he should be - likely due to him being a relatively unknown cornerback. However, teams tend to throw a lot at rookies giving them ample tackle opportunity and that's exactly what we've seen with Worley. The Seahawks aren't a great matchup this week, but Worley has proven to be fairly matchup independent over the last month or so. DB3/CB1-.

S Tavon Wilson (DET) -
Given their lack of talent at the linebacker position, the Lions have been using an increasing amount of three-safety sets over the last several weeks. Wilson has been the "in-the-box" safety in these sets and has obviously benefited from the change in scheme as he's compiled 30 total tackles in his last four games. He has a stellar matchup against the Saints this week as they allow the most points to safeties. He can be started as a strong DB3+.

CB Bashaud Breeland (WAS) -
Breeland's had an up-and-down year due to injury; however, playing opposite Josh Norman ensure he will get plenty of targets each week. He had two strong weeks coming out of Washington's Week 9 bye, but saw his numbers dip last week against a run-first Dallas team. His production should trend back up this week against a Cardinals team that allows the most points to cornerbacks by a fairly wide margin. Solid CB2/CB1- play.

CB Jalen Collins (ATL) -
Desmond Trufant is out for the year with a pectoral injury which means Collins will slide into a starting role at cornerback. He's proven to be productive when given the chance to play and he should get thrown at a good amount. He's a sneaky late season add for those in deep, cornerback-required IDP leagues.


If you have any questions, feel free to email me at theidpguru@idpguru.com or follow me on Twitter. Also, feel free to post any questions or comments for me in the comments section of this post.

Last Updated: November 29, 2016
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23 comments :

Gellert House said...

David Harris or Darron Lee ROS?
Thanks!

Gellert House said...

..what are your thoughts on DeAndre Levy?

Gary VanDyke said...

It's Korey Toomer, and Klien being the starter was news early from Panthers early last week. Love the job you do, just thought i might help you out here with a couple things. Thx.

Gary VanDyke said...

Surprised Tavon Wilson just now hitting the list, He has been on my teams for weeks now.

backriver111 said...

Nick Bellore played the whole game. Skov was the injured 49er.

lex altman said...

Bellore was hurt but came back during game to play was my understanding

FOOTBALLDAVE said...

What impact is church on Byron Jones? Thanks.

Harry H said...

With Bennett back Frank Clark still worth starting?

blahblah said...

bennett, dunlap, m johnson, or wolfe for DE, thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Gellert House
I'd go Darron Lee as he more upside at this point than Harris.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Gellert House
Probably at least a week or so away and not sure how effective or how much Detroit is going to play him for the rest of the season given his previous injury history. He's someone I'm not counting on down the fantasy playoff stretch.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Gary VanDyke
Yeah, thanks for the heads up on Toomer. That's been corrected. I was aware that Klein was the starter just not that he was going to play every down.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Harry H
Tough call. I think we will see some rotation early on with Clark. Think he's performed well enough to play a decent amount of snaps rotationally. May see a slight drop off in performance but I don't think it will be all that drastic.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@blahblah
Dunlap

DrunknIrish said...

Bernardrick Mckinney, Zack Brown, or Darron Lee

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@DrunknIrish
I'd go with Brown as Mckinney's matchup is not good.

Tom Brown said...

Need this one for playoffs guru! Malcolm smith, korey toomer or Ryan shazier. 1 pt per tackle .5 pt per half tackle. Thanks!!!

fouroeight san jose said...

Should I drop Justin Houston for Kwon Alexander ROS? Or hold?

Houston plays Ten week 15 and Den week 16

Alexander plays Dal week 15 and NO week 16

1: Tackle
3: INT
2: Forced Fum
2: Fumble Rec
1: Pass Def

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Tom Brown
Toomer is the safer play IMO. Shazier slightly more upside. Otherwise, pretty much a coin flip between the two rankings-wise.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@fouroeight san jose
What are sacks worth? I would drop Houston for Alexander if the ratio is anything under 3:1 sacks to tackles.

Football Fanatic said...

I think the IDP Guru should change his name to the IDP Dunno. Your weekly waiver picks are way of and you're too opinionated... stick to the facts!

dandin canlas said...

Help me pick 3 lbs. 3 pts a tackle

Thomas Davis vs chargers
Luke kuechly
Malcolm smith vs chiefs
Lavonte David vs saints
Korey toomer vs panthers

Adam Khan said...

Two questions..
now that vaccaro is out, is the pickup
A. Bell
B. Byrd
C. Harper

2. I have
donte Hightower,
ryan shazier,
vontaze burfict,
devondre Campbell,
and Denzel perryman.
Choose 4.

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