2014 Super Bowl IDP Prop Bets

I was in Vegas this past weekend for the Footballguys annual retreat, so I thought now would be the perfect time to write a short little article covering some of my favorite IDP prop bets for this year's Super Bowl.

If any additional prop bets crop up that I find to be a good value, I will make sure to add to this list.

1) Seattle Defense UNDER 2.5 Sacks (-120)
Site: Aria Race & Sports, Las Vegas
5 Star Play ()

Rationale: I really like this bet. Like A LOT. Denver is the toughest team in the league to sack as they only allow pressure on 7.6% of their dropbacks. Additionally, Manning is only being sacked 2.6% of the time on passing plays which equates to about 1 sack per game. Furthermore, Denver only allowed more than 2 sacks twice the entire regular season (Week 1 against the Ravens and Week 7 against the Colts). Conversely, the Seahawks are above average at getting to the quarterback, but not elite. They are 9th in total sacks and registered 3 or more sacks in 6 of their 16 games (38%).

Add in the fact that the weather is likely to be bad and there's a good chance the Broncos will run the ball more than normal leading to less pass attempts and therefore even less sack opportunity than normal.

NOTE: I've only seen this bet at Aria Race & Sports in Las Vegas, so chances are most people won't be able to take advantage of this bet; however it was such a good value, I couldn't not mention it!


2) Danny Trevathan OVER 7 1/2 Total Tackles (-115)
Site: Bovada
4 Star Play ()

Rationale: Trevathan posted 8 or more total tackles in 9 of the 16 regular season games and in 7 of his last 9 games. With Wesley Woodyard losing favor with the coaching staff as the season progressed, Trevathan has become the leader of the defense in many ways. The Seahawks are middle of the road in tackle opportunity allowed and are near the bottom in solo tackles allowed, but they are 3rd in assists given due to their stat keepers' tendency to favor issuing assists over solo tackles. There have been several instances of OLB putting up 8+ total tackles against the Seahawks this season (Thomas Davis, Ahmad Brooks, Zach Brown, Moise Fokou, Lavonte David, Paul Worrilow, Spencer Paysinger, Alec Ogletree). This is a solid play.   


3) Bobby Wagner UNDER 10 Total Tackles (-105)
Site: Bovada
4 Star Play ()

Rationale: Wagner only topped 10 total tackles twice during the entire regular season. And that's a game which he was credited with 2 tackles just because he had 1.5 sacks. The Broncos are #1 in tackle opportunity allowed at 58.4 but I would assume that number winds up being lower in this game as Denver probably won't control the ball as much as they normally do. Only three inside linebackers surpassed 10 tackles against the Broncos in the regular season (DeMeco Ryans, Sean Lee, and Perry Riley).


NON-IDP BONUS BET:
4) Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs. Denver Broncos
Site: Bovada
4 Star Play ()

Rationale: The percentage of money on Denver is currently at a whopping 75%. I'm not really sure why the public is all over the Broncos but I assume people are putting a lot of faith in Peyton Manning and the Broncos high powered offense. However, elite quarterbacks in Super Bowls have had a really difficult time covering the spread over the past 10+ years (2-9).

Seattle is the better team in my opinion and should probably be giving 2-3 points. Seattle's defense matches up against quite well against Peyton Manning:

1) Unlike most NFL quarterbacks, Manning is the master of exploiting defensive blitzes. However, Seattle doesn't utilize or rely on the blitz much at all. That said, there won't be as many on the fly adjustments for Manning to call to try and create advantages.


2) Seattle's defense has proven to be very effective at containing pocket passers this season. They held Drew Brees to a combined 22 points over 2 contests and Matt Ryan to a measly 179 yards and 1 TD. Obviously, Peyton Manning will be there biggest challenge to date, but I expect the Seahawks' defense to hold him below his season averages.

All this said, there is some really nice value to be had here. I'm going with Seattle and the points.


Last Updated: January 31, 2014
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