For simplicity's sake, when analyzing these players only projected 2012 production will be taken into account. In other words, only their redraft value is being judged.
Current ADP: 149.72
Min Pick: 97
Max Pick: 248
Tackles: Sheard is called upon more to defend the run and is perhaps a better run defender than Dumervil. Also, the Browns aren't very good and consequently teams run against them a ton late in games to protect their leads. Sheard showed that he can handle a full complement of snaps over the course of an entire season and is a good bet to beat out Dumervil in this category.
Big Plays: This is the category that wins the contest for Dumervil. Although he didn't post monster sack totals with 9.5 sacks last season, it's important to keep in mind that it took him half the season to shake off the rust from his torn pectoral injury and regain his technique from a leverage standpoint. In his final 9 games, he posted 9.5 sacks with a sack in 8 consecutive weeks. In his previous full season in 2009, he registered a whopping 16.5 sacks and a respectable 58 total tackles. Sheard doesn't have the talent or surrounding cast to put up these type of sack totals.
Opportunity: This one is a draw. From an overall snap count perspective, Sheard would win this category. However, Dumervil will likely draw more pass rushing snaps than Sheard. The Broncos will likely be ahead more which means opposing teams will have to throw a lot leading to more pass rushing attempts for Elvis.
Health: Sheard wins this one basically by default. Dumervil suffered a torn pectoral muscle in 2010 and although he seemed to bounce back quite well last year, he will always have that injury hanging over his head. Sheard is only 23 years old and hasn't had any significant injury concerns so far in his career.
Safeness: I'm going with Dumervil on this one. Although he's older and has an injury history, he's shown that he's a top 10 DL when healthy over the last few seasons. Sheard is a solid talent, but has had only one season of production in the league. Additionally, his surrounding cast is much weaker and he will be facing many more double teams than he did last season.
WINNER: Dumervil is the winner based largely on his big play capability. He's being ranked and drafted in the 15-20 range but deserves to be taken as a top 10 DL. As mentioned before, Sheard is a solid player, but we've possibly seen the peak of his production in his rookie season and there's a greater chance for regression with him than with Dumervil. Consider Elvis one of the more undervalued players in this year's drafts.
So who do you think wins this battle? Any suggestions for future battles? Send your comments/questions via email, Twitter, or the comments section below.
Last Updated: June 1, 2012 Related Posts: