2011 IDP Dynasty Buy Low/Sell High: Week 9

Written By: Eric Olinger

One of the best things about a Dynasty League, in my opinion, is that you seem to have a lot less dead beat owners who disappear once they’re eliminated from contention. Free agents are still picked up for stashing. Some savvy owners are making trades for the future and positions for draft picks. While teams aren’t going to have a fire sale, the smart ones are going to be willing to trade the “flash in the pan” players and the aging veterans giving their one last hurrah before fading away into the sunset. This year especially, the guys with the most talented players might not be the guys in the playoffs. Thanks to Andre Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt,  Rashard Mendenahll, Jon Beason,  Mario Williams, and so-on, there are bad luck teams that are going to miss the playoffs. While that list has some good buy-low candidates on it, they’re on the offensive side of the ball and we don’t do that here, so on to the good stuff…


BUY

Patrick Chung- SS- Patriots
It amazes me how many people ask if they should add Chung off their Waiver Wires. Chung is Belicheck’s new Rodney Harrison in this D. He gets a ton of tackle opportunities in a sieve like defense constantly being tested through the air. Plus, he’ll sprinkle in the occasional sack and INT. Chung is a true playmaker in a defense struggling to find it’s way. If he is out on your waiver wire, just add him and let’s move on. He’s a centerpiece Belicheck will continue to build around.

Mathias Kiwanuka- SLB- Giants
It seems like every other year Kiwanuka is a SLB and then a DE. In leagues with positional limits, that’s a real pain in the ass. But Kiwanuka is so talented he produces wherever he is. From a fantasy standpoint, you want him at DE. If your league allows you to play him at DE still, he gets an even bigger boost. You’ll get DE sack numbers and LB tackle numbers. But even as a LB he’s put up good numbers, in the last 3 weeks he’s put up at least 4 tackles and at least one sack in each game. With all the injuries  currently happening, Kiwanuka deserves to be on a roster.

Marcel Dareus- DT- Bills
Normally a positional afterthought in IDP leagues, Dareus was moved from DE to NT in Buffalo’s 3-4 Defense and it paid off huge. Dareus was down right NASTY Sunday against Washington, posting 2.5 sacks and a blocked kick. Coming into the game Buffalo had 4 sacks as a team all year. The switch, combined with John Beck’s ineptitude, resulted in 9 (!!!) sacks in the game. Obviously, moving forward Dareus will be the team’s starting NT and while expecting 2.5 sacks a game is unrealistic, Dareus is most definitely worth a roster stash as a wait-and-see prospect. His talent is undeniable, so this likely was not a flash in the pan performance. Look for many more dominant games from the rookie moving forward.

Bruce Carter- ILB- Cowboys
Carter was active for the first time last week after being on the PUP list for tearing his ACL last November at North Carolina. But Dallas still used a 2nd round pick on him, which should tell you how much potential they see in him. Carter and Lee could be the Cowboys’ version of Willis and Bowman. And now with Lee going down (dislocated wrist), Coach Garrett already said Carter will continue to see more defensive snaps. He might not make a big impact immediately, but Dynasty owners should definitely monitor this guy. At worst he will rotate with the highly ineffective Keith Brooking and Bradie James.

SELL

Ladarius Webb- CB- Ravens
Webb was a solid IDP asset the first 6 weeks of the season. He was a high tackle volume CB who was relentlessly targeted. But now with more talented, higher draft pick guys getting healthy, Webb is losing opportunities. The last 2 weeks have been terrible and barring another injury to Carr or rookie Jimmy Smith, Webb will be a headache and an unpredictable IDP play. Feel free to move on.

London Fletcher- MLB- Redskins
How much of his 20 tackle ½ sack game was due to McIntosh leaving early and how much was it situation. Buffalo had the lead from the coin flip and repeatedly ran Fred Jackson all over the Redskins “defense”. This week San Francisco comes to town with a game plan that won’t be much different. They will strap their wagon to Frank “The Tank” Gore and let him run wild. Fletcher should have another big game and if he does, go into “sell mode” and convince your league mates that this guy is revitalized and move him at peak value.

Derrick Johnson- MLB- Chiefs
I mentioned Johnson last week and said “This week vs. San Diego I’m sure he’ll return to the world of “3 solos and 4 assists”. Oops! I still believe what I said and this is the exception and not the rule with Johnson. He’s had too many stinkers to make me change my opinion of him over 2 games. If you’re ever going to make a “Sell High” move, this, in my opinion, is the time to do it. I do not trust him! I’m sure anyone owning a Steeler LB would love to have him right now.

Brandon Spikes- MLB- Patriots
Patriots LB’s haven’t been very productive this year period, but Spikes exploded for 12 total tackles (10 solo) last week vs. Pittsburgh. But he doesn’t offer much big play potential. He has zero sacks and zero interceptions this year. I’m not saying he’s worthless, but anyone seeing these numbers expecting LB1 production need to reel in expectations. He is strictly a LB3 that blew up for a week. If anyone is willing to overpay for him thinking they’ll get these numbers again, let him go. Especially if you have an owner in a panic with Sean Lee, James Harrison, or LaMarr Woodley going down with injury. Those owners are the people I would be dangling Spikes in front of. 

Good luck this week everyone. Thanks for reading! Comments, suggestions or questions are welcome below or by email at ericolinger@idpguru.com. You can also follow my active Twitter feed @Olinger3781.

Last Updated: November 2, 2011
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7 comments :

Howard said...

Hi Eric, In my Dynasty league I was offered Willis and Von Miller for Angerer and Greenway. Would you do the deal? I like the balance that Angerer and Greenway are giving me but Willis is the nuts of LBs.

Also, would you rather have Dareus over Michael Johnson who put up a fat goose egg last week?

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

As a Willis owner, I can tell you that his scoring has dropped off because of Bowman. I think you are better served keeping the two you have.

Eric Olinger said...

@Howard Is this a keeper/dynasty league? I think it's hard to pass up Willis for the next 10 years. I like Angerer a lot for this year but I think it's hard to gauge his value beyond this year. Indy is playing a ton more defense this year than at any point of the Peyton Manning era. If/when he returns his opportunities could take a hit. What is the difference in points per week between Miller and Greenway in your league? Long term Willis is better than Angerer and I think Miller will be close to Greenway. I would probably do it.

WB said...

You're going to make a lot of people unhappy by continuing to recommend 'Selling high' on Derrick Johnson.

Eric Olinger said...

@WB I take my own advice. I swapped him for David Hawthorne. So remember this and we'll see how my opinion turns out at season's end.

Evan said...

My league counts solos and assists the same. Is London Fletcher a definite #1 with that scoring system?

Eric Olinger said...

@Evan I think so. In leagues that only count total tackles Fletcher would be a low end LB1/high end LB2 at worst. He's really playing well right now from a fantasy perspective. The offense with Beck is horrible and the defense is living on the field.

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