2011 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 7

Hello and welcome back to the IDPGuru.com's most popular in-season article, IDP Waiver Wire Pickups which will be releasing every Tuesday of the regular season.

Before we get to the waiver wire writeups for this week however, let's take a brief moment to cover off on some important IDP notes from week 6:

Steelers linebacker Lawrence Timmons continues to fall off the face of the IDP fantasy planet as he put up 0 points last week against the Jaguars. Although he has a nice matchup against the Cardinals this week, I can't recommend starting him in pretty much any fantasy leagues until he moves back inside.

Rookie Aldon Smith continued his torrid sack pace in week 6 with another mulit-sack game. He's had 5.5 sacks in his last three games and is starting to look like a DeMarcus Ware-type talent. He's on bye this week, but is worth serious consideration as a linebacker in dynasty leagues and a DL3+ in leagues that classify him as a defensive lineman.

Bernard Pollard was mentioned in my waiver wire column last week and he had his best performance of the season with 5 solo tackles. Although it was a marked improvement over previous games, I still wouldn't trust Pollard as a starter moving forward unless he has an optimal matchup.

Kurt Coleman had 3 INTs last week after getting the starting nod at free safety for the Eagles. Many owners will probably rush out and grab Coleman off the waiver wire this week, but I wouldn't be so quick to pull the trigger on that move. You have to keep in mind that he was facing Rex Grossman who had an atrocious game and was eventually benched for John Beck. Coleman wasn't playing that well before last week and I bet he loses his job or at least rotates with Jarrett or Page sooner rather than later.

IDP owners who were patient with Paul Posluszny are reaping the benefits of his recent performances. He had 16 total tackles last week and has had 38 total tackles over his last 3 games. I think these numbers are a bit inflated as he's had very good matchups the last 3 weeks, but his string of good matchups will continue until his bye in week 9. He's an LB1 until that time.

Trent Cole and Justin Tuck both missed another game as they continue to try and recover from their respective injuries. Both players are on bye this week and should return to starting action in week 8. Personally, I feel much more comfortable starting Cole moving forward than I do Tuck. JT's type of injury is more chronic and the Giants will be more willing to shut him down due to the depth on the defensive line than the Eagles will be with Cole.

With last week's notes out of the way, let's move on to the Guru's waiver wire selections for this week.

Defensive Linemen
RDE Michael Bennett (TB) - Johnson has put up 4 or more solo tackles in 4 of his 6 games so far this season and has a multiple sack game to his record. He draws the Chicago Bears' offensive line this week. Although they played much better last week against the Vikings, their line is still atrocious and Bennett could be set up for a very solid game. He's worth serious consideration as a DL3 this week.

RDE Andre Carter (NE) - I called out Carter as a potential sleeper candidate in my 2011 IDP Draft Guide. He started off the season a bit slow but has really come on as of late with the Patriots playing more of a traditional 4-3 base defense. When Jerod Mayo returns (possibly in Week 8), the Pats may elect to go back to using more 3-4 which will hurt Carter's value. But with the waiver wire so thin, he's worth the risk especially with two nice matchups against the Steelers and Giants after his week 7 bye.

RDE Jeremy Mincey (JAX) - Mincey was on this list last week, but deserves another mention this week. He didn't register a sack in week 6 against the Steelers, but he did put up an impressive 8 total tackles and is starting to establish himself as a reliable DL3 option in balanced and tackle heavy leagues. The return of Aaron Kampman won't really affect his playing time much. This is more of a long term, rest of season type of pickup as his matchup this week against the Ravens isn't the greatest. It's hard to find potential season long keepers at this position, so it's important to jump on guys with Mincey's type of potential early.

RDE Jabaal Sheard (CLE) - Sheard is a rookie that I mentioned a few times earlier in the year as a solid waiver wire pickup. He's getting a ton of snaps for a rookie and is consequently putting up above average tackle numbers and has managed 2 sacks in his first 5 games. According to Pro Football Focus, Sheard has had a +8.1 rating so far this season (ranking him 13th amongst 4-3 DEs). He draws the Seahawks this week and has a good chance at sacking newly-installed QB Charlie Whitehurst.

*Also note that Sheard is classified as a DT in ESPN leagues and becomes a must start this week in DT-required leagues.


Linebackers
LOLB Anthony Spencer (DAL) - Believe it or not, the Rams offensive line has played worse than the offensive line of the Chicago Bears so far this season. Spencer has three sacks through five games and puts up decent tackle numbers for an outside rush linebacker. St. Louis will focus all of their attention on stopping DeMarcus Ware which should allow Spencer to garner at least 1 sack this week. He's a low-end LB3 start.

SLB Daryl Smith (JAX) - Smith is another Jaguar player that I mentioned as a solid IDP waiver wire pickup last week and will mention here again. He's not flashy, but he gets the job done when he's supposed to and that's all you can ask for out of your fantasy players. He had 8 total tackles last week against a good matchup in the Steelers. He gets another good matchup this week against the Baltimore Ravens and I would expect a similar stat line. He's a solid LB3+ play this week.

WLB DeAndry Levy (DET)
- In the three games in which fellow linebacker Justin Durant has sat out, Levy has put up an average of over 11 total tackles per game and has become fairly matchup independent. He's got a good matchup this week against the Falcons and remains a high-end LB2 as long as Durant is out. Rest of season, Levy is a good sell high candidate as his production is likely to slip once Durant comes back from his concussion.

WLB Jovan Belcher (KC) - Belcher has been fairly solid since the Chiefs starting using him in nickel subpackages back in week 3. The unmotivated play of WILB Derrick Johnson has also opened the door for Belcher to become a fantasy presence. With their starting QB out for the season, the Raiders will look to run the ball A LOT against the Chiefs defense which should equate to a good amount of tackles for Belcher. Expect 8-11 total tackles this week.

LOLB LaMarr Woodley (PIT) - Much of the IDP fantasy attention in Pittsburgh so far this season has been focused on the poor play of Lawrence Timmons as well as the orbital socket injury suffered by James Harrison. This has allowed Woodley to fly way under the radar in most leagues. He's had a sack in 4 of the 6 games this season and has 3.5 sacks in his last two games. More importantly, he has a top 5 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this week. LB3 play in balanced and tackle-heavy leagues, LB2 play in big play leagues.


Defensive Backs
FS Tanard Jackson (TB) - Up until this week, Jackson hadn't played in a regular season NFL game since week 2 of last season as he was serving a suspension handed down by the league. However, you wouldn't have known that judging by his play on Sunday against the Saints. Jackson had 5 solo tackles, 1 interception, and a pass deflection. The Bucs coaching staff wasted no time in getting him back into the starting lineup. This is not only a testament to Jackson's talent, but also the desperation on part of the organization to provide help to their young defense. Playing behind a set of struggling linebackers should allow Jackson to have decent tackle opportunity. Additionally, Jackson has very good range in the secondary and has big play potential. He's worth a flier as a DB3 value in most leagues. His presence will also likely diminish Sean Jones' value.

LCB Terrence Johnson (IND) - Jacob Lacey's continuing bad play had led to more and more playing time for Terence Johnson who has had 4 straight solid tackling performances. Lacey was actually benched in the 3rd quarter of last week's game and replaced fully by Johnson. The Colts play the Saints this week who are one of the best fantasy matchups in the league for opposing cornerbacks. I expect Johnson to have 7-8 solos in this game and is a very sneaky play as a DB3/CB2+ for those in deeper IDP leagues.

LCB Justin King (STL) - King is the type of cornerback you love for fantasy purposes: He constantly gets burned and opposing QBs throw at him relentlessly. However, the Rams have no talent at the CB position and thus he's likely to remain the starter. As the Rams travel to Dallas, expect Tony Romo and company to throw the ball early and often. So far this season, the Cowboys have allowed the #1 most fantasy points to opposing cornerbacks. Consider King to have similar value as the above mentioned Terrence Johnson this week.

FS Husain Abdullah (MIN) - Abdullah has produced like a solid DB3 in the majority of weeks this season and can usually be counted on for 5-6 solo tackles per week. He faces the Packers this week who have been very fantasy friendly to free safeties this year. The Vikings offense is horrible so you can bet their defense is going to be a on the field a ton in week 7. Count on Abdullah as a DB3+ this week.


If you have any questions, feel free to email me at theidpguru@idpguru.com or follow me on Twitter. Also, feel free to post any questions or comments for me in the comments section of this post.

Last Updated: October 18, 2011
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13 comments :

Unknown said...

Word is that Timmons is moving back in side THIS week.

WannabeGuru said...

What are the thoughts on Thomas DeCoud and Jarrad Page? I'm thinking of dropping Patrick Peterson for one, and I'm wondering who has the higher upside the rest of the season. Thanks.

WannabeGuru said...

Also, assuming Timmons goes back inside, who do you think will be better through the following five games (weeks 12-16)?

Lawrence Timmons @ KC, vs CIN, vs CLE, @ SF, vs STL

OR

David Hawthorne vs WAS, vs PHI, vs STL, @ CHI, vs SF

Thanks.

Dan said...

help me pick a LB to start out of the list:

jovan belcher vs. raiders
calvin pace vs. chargers
joe mays vs. dolphins
dan connor vs. redskins

Anonymous said...

I still don't get why you have Aldon Smith as only a DL3. Having him eligible as a DL (Vs. LB) is HUGE! I have started him over Julius Peppers the last 2 weeks.

Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on Dumervil getting back on track? He's a DE, LB in ESPN leagues.

SK=9
INT=11
TK=1.5
TKL=5
FF=9

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@WannabeGuru
DeCoud has the higher upside rest of the season. After Kurt Coleman's performance last week, Page will likely be sitting on the bench for at least a couple of weeks.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@WannabeGuru
I like Hawthorne more than Timmons ROS. He's an every down LB again and we should see an uptick in his numbers.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Dan
Go with Belcher.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
He's a DL3 with major upside. He just doesn't see enough snaps to be trusted as anything more until he becomes a starter. He's had a great couple of weeks, but there will also be weeks in which he puts up a zero.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Dumervil is in the high upside DL3 category for me right now. I think his numbers will improve as the season wears on. He's worth the risk in most league as a DL.

Nate said...

Why do you say Mincey doesn't have a great matchup this week? Ravens are listed as #7 in your points allowed to DL. Thanks.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Nate
The Ravens have only given up 10 sacks all year. Their style of running allows the DLs to get a healthy amount of tackle numbers, however. That is why they are #7 is fantasy points allowed.

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