2011 IDP Dynasty Buy Low/Sell High: Week 7

Written By: Eric Olinger

This year has been one of the most frustrating years that I can remember for IDP linebackers. Guys that are usually the no-brainer, team centerpiece guys are just not performing as well as we are used to seeing (guys like Lawrence Timmons, Barrett Ruud, London Fletcher, Jerod Mayo, and to a lesser extent, Patrick Willis). Whether it is scheme changes, injuries, opportunities, or competition, the level of weekly consistency has really dropped. Some of these IDP staples are even on some waiver wires. As the league shifts to more of a pass heavy game, I think the weekly stud LB will continue to diminish and DBs will continue to benefit. It’s a very frustrating weekly chess game but with knowledge comes power. If you haven’t looked at some of our weekly pieces done by Ryan and Bill, like our Points Allowed by Position, Tackles Issued by Home Scorekeepers, and Weekly IDP Rankings, you’re really missing out. Also, if you haven’t heard, we are doing a Weekly IDP Chat on Wednesdays at 7pm EST where I and some of the other Gurus are available to answer any questions you might have.


BUY

Aldon Smith- OLB- San Francisco 49ers
This is probably the last time I’ll mention him simply because you won’t have the chance to get him. In Dynasty leagues specifically, Smith is a true gem. The 49ers LB core is flat out nasty. With Bowman and Willis both playing on all 3 downs, the ability to disguise coverages and blitzes is allowing Smith to wreak havoc on QBs. If you watched him in the Lions game this past weekend, you saw what he can do. He was the disrupting force that caused the safety, racked up 2 more sacks, and was playing at an elite speed level. I love this guy. In leagues that reward big for sacks and turnovers, he’s a true player. In leagues that are tackle heavy, he is more of a boom or bust guy because his production is linked directly to the big plays.

Lawrence Timmons- LB- Pittsburgh Steelers
This is the exact definition of “buying low.” Timmons owners are frustrated. They drafted him for LB1 numbers and he hasn’t produced…yet. But in Dynasty Leagues above all else, talent prevails. Timmons’ year last year was not a fluke, this year is. If you can move a lesser talent that’s playing above his ability, like a Kavell Conner, and land a guy with Timmons’ huge upside, you do it. The Pittsburgh D all runs through Polamalu and as he gets healthier, it frees up Timmons and Woodley to do their thing. It’s going to happen.

Aaron Curry- WLB- Oakland Raiders
I missed it by THAT much! In this article last week I told readers I had a feeling he would be moved. Unfortunately, I didn’t consider the Raiders a possibility. It was mentioned on Tuesday that Curry was sought after as part of the Palmer trade but Oakland wouldn’t include him. That should tell you what kind of hopes and expectations the Raiders have for Curry. He played last week but didn’t make too much of an impact. I expect a little more from him this week, but with a week 8 BYE looming, his real impact will be after that. Solid LB4+ with nice upside.

Kyle Arrington- CB- New England Patriots
When it comes to DBs in Fantasy, you don’t always want the most talented guy. You want the guy that’s good enough to start in the NFL, but not good enough to scare offenses. Guys like Revis and Asomugha don’t get a ton of opportunities (outside of Matt Moore’s ignorance). In New England, the defense is bad and the offense is LEGEN-wait for it…DARY! Opposing teams are forced to play catch up and throw, producing plenty of tackle opportunities. The 3 leading tacklers on NE are all DBs. That should tell you enough right there.

Sell

Shawn Merriman- OLB- Buffalo Bills
This guy is a shell of his former self. He lacks any explosion and brings little to no pressure on opposing QBs. And now his Achilles is acting up AGAIN! As Jon Beason owners know, anyone coming back from an Achilles injury too soon usually ends up in worse shape. For a guy that relies solely on big plays for his IDP production, there is nobody on the IDP side who’s name so outweighs his production. If you have him on your roster still pray there is someone crazy enough in your league to still want him. He has pretty much no value moving forward.

Kurt Coleman- FS- Philadelphia Eagles
Coleman had a very impressive game against the Redskins and Rex Grossman picking off 3 passes. He said through game film he had such a great feel for what Rex would do and it was just instincts. Unlucky for Coleman, and luckily for everyone else, there aren’t anymore Rex Grossmans. Hell, there isn’t even a Rex Grossman playing in Washington now thanks to Coleman. This HUGE game was a fluke and I personally do not trust anyone in the back seven of Philadelphia’s D. New DC Juan Castillo (former O-Line coach) is CLUELESS and is in so far over his head that it’s sad. They’ve tried Matthews everywhere, Chaney has been in and out, Brian Rolle has been in and out, the safeties have been benched. So even if “Bad Juan” keeps Coleman in the lineup, this was most likely his peak performance. I wouldn’t chase the stats.

Kavell Conner- WLB- Indianapolis Colts
As a Kavell Conner owner myself, I’m not excited about having him by any means. He’s nothing more than a very low end LB3/flex play. But he’s good enough to use for BYE week fill ins. Outside of his huge 14 solo tackle game, he hasn’t been spectacular or horrible. But he lacks sizzle. Once I get passed my BYE weeks I plan on dropping him for more of a high upside stash for my Dynasty leagues. Thanks to that huge week his season stats look pretty nice so you might be able to move him for some decent value.

Michael Bennett- DE- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The only thing that keeps Bennett afloat is for a DL he gets a decent amount of tackles. In 4 of 6 games he’s had 4+ solo tackles. He only has 2 sacks on the season and both of them came against the horrible O-line of the Colts. Everyone gets 2 sacks against the Colts. Bennett’s Dynasty outlook isn’t the greatest simply because Da’Quan Bowers and Adrian Clayborn were drafted to play next to Brian Price and Gerald McCoy. Bennett is serviceable through BYE weeks but lacks any real potential of longevity. This is the kind of guy in a Dynasty League that I would drop after BYE weeks to pick up a guy like a Robert Quinn (STL) who has much better value in 2012 and beyond.

Thanks for reading! Comments, suggestions or questions are welcome below or by email at ericolinger@idpguru.com. You can also follow my active Twitter feed @Olinger3781.

Last Updated: October 20, 2011
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