2011 IDP ADP Analysis - Defensive Linemen

Hello and welcome to the second part of a three part series covering IDP average draft positions (ADPs). This specific article will focus on examining the ADPs of defensive linemen.

My own personal drafting philosophy is heavily predicated on finding as much value as I can with each and every pick. Typically the later in drafts you delve, the more value there is to be found and finding this value is what separates the winners from the losers in fantasy football.

In this article, I will be comparing the ADP of defensive linemen (provided by My Fantasy League) to my redraft rankings for defensive linemen.

Keep in mind that some leagues require you to roster a DT and therefore some of the defensive tackles' ADPs may be inflated a bit (e.g. Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Williams).

The break off point in determining whether a player was "undervalued" or "overvalued" was +/-7 points respectively. When taking a general overview of the results, this specific number seemed to signal the start of the outlying players. Although this number was chosen arbitrarily, it will suffice for our purposes in this article and should allow for some accurate estimates of true value.
For each player that was over this threshold, I wrote a short analysis to sum up why they are either under or overvalued.

I hope this helps my readers get a better grasp on where defensive linemen should be taken in most leagues and that it will ultimately take you one step closer to your league championship.



DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
Player  Overall ADP Positional ADP IDP Guru's Redraft Ranking Difference
Tuck, Justin NYG DE 92.39 1 2 -1
Suh, Ndamukong DET DT 93 2 9 -7
Allen, Jared MIN DE 101.37 3 3 0
Cole, Trent PHI DE 113.33 4 1 3
Peppers, Julius CHI DE 114.24 5 5 0
Suggs, Terrell BAL DE 117.01 6 4 2
Johnson, Charles CAR DE 139.32 7 6 1
Mathis, Robert IND DE 160.53 8 7 1
Dumervil, Elvis DEN DE 162.91 9 8 1
Umenyiora, Osi NYG DE 166.96 10 13 -3
Dunlap, Carlos CIN DE 182.03 11 19 -8
Ngata, Haloti BAL DT 182.51 12 24 -12
Smith, Justin SFO DE 191.49 13 11 2
Long, Chris STL DE 192.32 14 16 -2
Pierre-Paul, Jason NYG DE 197.36 15 17 -2
Williams, Kyle BUF DT 206.49 16 28 -12
Shaughnessy, Matt OAK DE 207.51 17 14 3
Babin, Jason PHI DE 210.86 18 22 -4
Abraham, John ATL DE 214.34 19 12 7
Freeney, Dwight IND DE 227.74 20 30 -10
Dockett, Darnell ARI DE 248.73 21 15 6
Edwards, Ray ATL DE 248.77 22 10 12
Vanden Bosch, Kyle DET DE 258.95 23 18 5

Undervalued Players
1.
RDE John Abraham (+7) - I suspect Abraham is slipping in drafts due to concerns about his age. He will be 33 heading into this season, but he seemed to still be playing at an elite level last year. He's rotated out a decent amount which keeps him fresh. Also, the addition of Ray Edwards at LDE should help Abraham this year and I see no reason why he can't put up 10-13 sacks again.

2.
LDE Ray Edwards (+12) - Many writers believe that Edwards was heavily dependent on Jared Allen for his sack production and that he's not good enough to produce those type of numbers outside of Minnesota. Although it may be true that Edwards is not a true DL1, he still doesn't have to be in Atlanta. Abraham is one of the premier pass-rushing DEs in the league and Edwards should put up similar numbers to those he registered in Minnesota.


Overvalued Players
1.
RDT Ndamukong Suh (-7) - Suh's one of the most talented DTs to come into the league in the last ten years and established himself as a top 10 fantasy lineman last year. However, I would never take Suh above established ends like Trent Cole, Terrell Suggs, and Jared Allen. Don't reach this high for Suh in leagues that don't require a DT.

2.
LDE Carlos Dunlap (-8) - Dunlap has been all over sleeper lists this season and I think his value may have gotten pumped up too much. He's currently being taken above proven, veteran starters like Darnell Dockett and Justin Smith. Dunlap is currently struggling through a knee injury and will likely start the season behind Robert Geathers at left end. He's got the talent to be drafted this high, but as of right now, the opportunity isn't there. I will be dropping him down my rankings a couple of spots due to his relatively low snap count levels.

3.
RDE Haloti Ngata (-12) - Ngata may qualify as a DT in some leagues and therefore his ADP may be spiked a bit. He's a solid player that has put up consistent numbers over the last couple of seasons, but his upside is too limited to be taken in the top 12.

4.
NT Kyle Williams (-12) - Williams has established himself as one of the more underrated DTs in the league and has placed in the top 30 for fantasy points scored at his position the last few seasons. He may be worth this draft spot in tackle heavy leagues, but in balanced leagues I think he deserves to be taken in the 25-30 range.

5. RDE Dwight Freeney (-10) - Year in and year out, Freeney is overdrafted. He produces in the sack column every year, but he just doesn't produce enough tackles to be considered anything more than a DL3.


Last Updated: August 28, 2011

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6 comments :

D said...

I know Jason Pierre-Paul is a sleeper and I ended up with Shaughnessy and Ray Edwards late for my 2 DL slots. Since they are both low on the ADP lists should I drop one to take on Pierre-Paul who is a FA in my league? Thanks, this site has really been helpful!

Tackle=2pt
Assit=1pt
Tackle for loss=2pt
Sack=6pt
INT=6pt
FF=3pt
FR=6pt
TD=7pt
Safety=4pt
Pass Def=3pt
Block Kick=6pt

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@D
I'd drop Edwards for JPP and keep Shaughnessy.

Anonymous said...

I got a similiar problem i have JPP and Ray Edwards but Kiwanuka is on the FA with both positions avaiable (LB,DL) should i drop Edwards for Kiwanuka?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Depends on the scoring system. In balanced or tackle-heavy leagues, I'd go with Kiwanuka, in big play leagues, I'd go with Edwards.

Anonymous said...

Kiwanuka for Edwards?
My Leagues scoring system
Solo Tackle 2
Assist 1
Interception 10
Sack 8
Fumble Force 5
Fumble recovery 5
Defensive Touchdown 15
Safety 20
Pass Defended 4
Blocked Kick 15

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Since it's big play scoring, I would stick with Edwards.

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