2011 IDP ADP Analysis - Defensive Backs

Hello and welcome to the third part of a three part series covering IDP average draft positions (ADPs). This specific article will focus on examining the ADPs of defensive backs.

My own personal drafting philosophy is heavily predicated on finding as much value as I can with each and every pick. Typically the later in drafts you delve, the more value there is to be found and finding this value is what separates the winners from the losers in fantasy football.

In this article, I will be comparing the ADP of defensive backs (provided by My Fantasy League) to my redraft rankings for defensive backs.

Keep in mind that some leagues require you to roster a CB and therefore some cornerbacks' ADP may be a bit overvalued.

The break off point in determining whether a player was "undervalued" or "overvalued" was +/-10 points respectively. When taking a general overview of the results, this specific number seemed to signal the start of the outlying players. Although this number was chosen arbitrarily, it will suffice for our purposes in this article and should allow for some accurate estimates of true value.
For each player that was over this threshold, I wrote a short analysis to sum up why they are either under or overvalued.

I hope this helps my readers get a better grasp on where defensive backs should be taken in most leagues and that it will ultimately take you one step closer to your league championship.



DEFENSIVE BACKS
Player  Overall ADP Positional ADP IDP Guru's Redraft Ranking Difference
Berry, Eric KCC S 120.57 1 2 -1
Landry, LaRon WAS S 123.63 2 1 1
Ward, T.J. CLE S 140.15 3 5 -2
Polamalu, Troy PIT S 142.5 4 13 -9
Branch, Tyvon OAK S 148.48 5 3 2
Thomas, Terrell NYG CB* 157.39 6 NR N/A
Chung, Patrick NEP S 158.98 7 6 1
Griffin, Michael TEN S 174.83 8 24 -16
Woodson, Charles GBP CB 175.31 9 12 -3
Whitner, Donte SFO S 177.24 10 15 -5
McCourty, Devin NEP CB 181.2 11 53 -42
Rhodes, Kerry ARI S 184.65 12 28 -16
Hall, Deangelo WAS CB 185.41 13 38 -25
Bell, Yeremiah MIA S 189.78 14 4 10
Harper, Roman NOS S 196.9 15 7 8
Weddle, Eric SDC S 202.46 16 10 6
Pollard, Bernard BAL S 203.6 17 14 3
Haden, Joe CLE CB 214.83 18 60 -42
Tillman, Charles CHI CB 216.12 19 20 -1
Mikell, Quintin STL S 219.05 20 9 11
Thomas, Earl SEA S 223.3 21 46 -25
Reed, Edward BAL S 228.81 22 69 -47
Landry, Dawan JAC S 251.44 23 21 2
*Out for the season with a torn ACL

Undervalued Players
1.
SS Yeremiah Bell (+10) - I was a bit surprised to see Bell being drafted so late. He's been one of the most consistent tackle-producing safeties in the league over the last three seasons and is typically listed within the top 7 in almost every set of rankings I've seen. Take advantage of this value come draft day.

2.
FS Quintin Mikell (+11) - Mikell has been producing very well for the Rams this preseason and should see a nice bump in tackle opportunity now that he's in St. Louis playing behind a suspect set of outside linebackers. He has a good chance to have low DB1 value this season.

***George Wilson and Antoine Bethea are ranked #8 and #11 respectively in my rankings.. However, they are not even listed in the top 30 defensive backs in this list. They represent a great value as well.


Overvalued Players
1.
FS Michael Griffin (-16) - Griffin's 2010 numbers were an aberration. He bested his previous career best tackle numbers by more than 30 due to Tennessee's historically high amount of tackle opportunity. Let others overpay for Griffin come draft day.

2.
FS Kerry Rhodes (-16) - Rhodes was ranked as the top defensive back in my scoring system due to his two defensive touchdowns last year. He had a ton of big plays, but his tackle numbers were only slightly above average with 90 total tackles. He should be drafted as a DB3 not a low-end DB1.

3.
FS Earl Thomas (-25) - Not sure why Thomas is being drafted this high. He had a decent rookie season with 72 solo tackles, 11 assists, and 5 INTs, but his tackle numbers are likely to dip this year with David Hawthorne playing in the middle. With this said, he will become big play dependent and I wouldn't trust him as anything more than a DB4/DB5.

4.
FS Ed Reed (-47) - Ed Reed, much like Dwight Freeney, is consistently overvalued come draft day due to his big name and big play abilities. I have no interest in drafting Reed at all, let alone in the top 30. He really only has value in leagues that reward heavily for interceptions. Outside of that, let him get drafted by someone else or fall to the waiver wire.

5. CBs Devin McCourty (-42), DeAngelo Hall (-25). and Joe Haden (-42) -
These cornerbacks' ADPs are likely inflated due to CB-required leagues being factored into the overall ADP ranking. Relatively speaking however, McCourty and Haden seemed to still be overvalued. They both put up good fantasy numbers as rookies, but that is common at this position. Teams tend to throw at rookie cornerbacks a lot and they therefore have a lot of point scoring opportunities. As they mature and get better at their position, teams throw at them less often thereby reducing their opportunity. Hence, why a lot of CBs go through "sophomore fantasy slumps." DeAngelo Hall has established himself as one of the more reliable fantasy CBs and this ranking could be justified in a CB-required league. However, in most leagues this draft slot is too high for his actual value.

Last Updated: August 28, 2011

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4 comments :

MoMo said...

A little help, pick 2 of these 3 for two DB spots(dropping the odd mam out):
George Wilson
Antoine Bethea
Roman Harper

T - 2pts
TA - 1pt
INT - 6pts

Noticed Wilson isn't getting many tackles in the pre-season compared to Scott. Is Wilson still the starter?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@MoMo
I'd drop Bethea.

MoMO said...

Thanks for the quick reply Ryan! To continue with my last question: Patrick Peterson is available and would you take a flyer on him over Wilson if the league also awards return yards now that he is going to be a starter or stick with Wilson in the format above? Thanks again

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@MoMO
Probably not. I like Wilson a lot. I think he has a very good chance to put up top 10 numbers.

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