2010 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 5

Now that the bye weeks are in full swing, waiver wire pickups become that much more important. As I always say, championships are won on the wire, not in the draft.

Here are a few IDP news tidbits from Week 4:

This was the week of Patrick Chung. Chung was initially benched in the 2nd quarter by coach Bill Belicheck, but was allowed back into the game after blocking a punt that led to a TD. He would go on to block a FG and return an interception for a touchdown. This should give Chung some well-deserved job security and is great news for us Chung owners.

On the flip side of things, Michael Lewis was granted his release today after being benched in favor of rookie Taylor Mays. He's safe to drop in all leagues.

Emerging fantasy sleeper Steven Gregory was busted for PED use and has been suspended for four games. Consequently, I will be keeping a close eye on the San Diego strong safety position as there is nice value to be had there.


In Atlanta, William Moore remained the starter at strong safety over a healthy Erik Coleman. If you own Coleman, now is the time to dump him.

Rookies Derrick Morgan and Morgan Burnett were both placed on IR after suffering season-ending injuries. Colts strong safety Melvin Bullitt will also miss the rest of the season after breaking a bone in his shoulder.

Enough with the past, let's move to the future and look at the waiver wire suggestions for Week 5:


DL


1. LDE James Hall (STL) @ DET - Chris Long was supposed to be the breakout defensive end in St. Louis this year, but in reality Hall has been their best fantasy lineman by a wide margin. He's had four sacks in his last three games and goes up against the Lions this week. He's a solid DL3 option moving forward.

2. RDE Haloti Ngata (BAL) vs. DEN - There are very few 350 pound players in the NFL that possess the balance and nimbleness of a ballerina, but Ngata is one of them. He's been wreaking havoc on opposing offensive linemen and is a every week must-start in DT-required leagues and is quickly becoming a reliable DE2 option. He's got a very nice matchup this week against the Broncos.


3. RDE Dave Ball (TEN) @ DAL - Dave who? Previous to this year, Ball had only registered a sack in one of his previous five seasons in the league. However, Ball has been playing well (4.5 sacks in the last three games) and is in line for ample playing time now that rookie Derrick Morgan has been placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL.


***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

RDE Charles Johnson (CAR) vs. CHI - Mike Martz' whack protection schemes were finally exposed last week in New York as the Giants managed to sack the quarterback a whopping ten times. Johnson has had a sack in each of his last two games and is a must start against the sorry excuse the Bears refer to as an offensive line.
Charles Johnson



LB

1. LILB A.J. Hawk (GB) @ WAS - Some may call A.J. Hawk's big performance last week merely a fluke, but I would disagree (to a certain extent). Hawk's main issue the last two seasons was his departure from the playing field on subpackages. With Brandon Chillar currently injured, Hawk has been allowed to stay in for nickel snaps thereby increasing his tackle opportunities. Furthermore, Nick Barnett is going to be slowed a bit this year as he continues to struggle with knee issues and a recently sprained wrist. I'm not expecting huge numbers from Hawk, but he has LB3 value in most leagues and he's got three solid matchups in a row in Weeks 6-8 (Dolphins, Vikings, Jets).
***SNEAKY-PLAY SPECIAL***

2. SLB Brian Cushing (HOU) vs. NYG - Obviously, Cushing is not a sleeper. But sometimes players get lost in the shuffle especially heading into the fifth week of the season. If Cushing is on your league's waiver wire, makes sure and put a claim in for him. Judging my the numbers that Zac Diles put up early in this young season, Cushing is in for a very nice year.

3. MLB Dhani Jones (CIN) vs. TB - Jones is probably the least exciting pickup you will ever make, but he's an easy player to benchmark. On average, he's going to get you between 8 and 9 total tackles per game. He's got a nice matchup against the Bucs this week, so you can probably bump that production up to 10 or 11 total tackles.

4. SILB Akin Ayodele (BUF) vs. JAX - Ayodele filled in for the injured Andra Davis last week and came up with 4 solo tackles and 6 assists. Assuming Davis is out again next week, Ayodele is a decent play in deeper leagues as there are plenty of tackles to go around on Buffalo's defense.

NOTE: Please check and make sure Davis is not playing before you pick up Ayodele.

***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

RILB Keith Brooking (DAL) vs. TEN - Brooking is on pace for his best fantasy season since 2007. This is in large part due to him staying on the field in nickel packages this season. In the previous two years, Brooking was replaced on third downs by worst linebacker in the league, Bobby Carpenter. Now that Carpenter is in Miami being Bill Parcells' boy toy, Brooking has been seeing an increase in tackle opportunities. He has a fantastic matchup against Chris Johnson and the Titans this week. I see nice LB2 value for Brooking in Week 5.

Keith Brooking



DB

1. SS Taylor Mays (SF) vs. PHI - This kid is a playmaker, plain and simple. It's a rarity to find a safety who is 6'3", runs a 4.3 40, and hits like a MAC truck. Mays got the first start of his career last week and put up 11 total tackles and also caught a blocked punt for a touchdown. Previous starting strong safety, Michael Lewis has been granted his release from the team, so Mays should have the starting gig locked down for the rest of the year. He still struggles in coverage, but for our (fantasy) purposes, this is good news. The 49ers will be bringing him up close to the line of scrimmage on a lot of plays as an extra defender against the run. I don't like the matchup that much against the Eagles this week, but Mays is going to be a very solid option at the defensive back position over the course of the entire season.


2. SS Donte Whitner (BUF) vs. JAX - At the onset of the regular season, I pointed out Whitner's potential value. He plays behind a very leaky front seven and consistently has above-average tackle opportunities. He's had 23 total tackles the last two weeks and as long as he can stay healthy, that production should continue. He won't get you many big plays, but he has low DB1/high DB2 value in tackle-heavy leagues.

3. RCB Alterraun Verner (TEN) @ DAL - After Roman Harper was listed as inactive for last weekend's game, I quickly scoured the waiver wire in my "big money" league for a potential gem and came up with Verner. I honestly had him in the back of my mind all week and I just forgot to include him in my waiver wire article (sorry about that). He's in an optimal situation; he's a young, talented, but very inexperienced cornerback playing opposite a Pro Bowler in Cortland Finnegan. Teams are going to pick on him relentlessly. We saw this last week as Kyle Orton continuously threw in Verner's direction resulting in 11 solo tackles. I expect more of the same this week from Alterraun as he faces Tony Romo and the Cowboys who are currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing cornerbacks.

4. LCB Terrell Thomas (NYG) @ HOU - T-squared has been quite consistent so far this season. He's registered 4 or more solos in each of his first four games to go along with two interceptions. I tend to trust this production as he had 70 solo tackles last season. He has a nice matchup against the Texans this week. Andre Johnson should play and Thomas will be covering him for a majority of snaps. He's a nice play in CB-required leagues this week.
***CB-REQUIRED SPECIAL***

***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

RCB Greg Toler (ARI) vs. NO - Toler has been one of this year's biggest surprises as he has already racked up an impressive 30 solo tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and a sack. In their attempt to avoid Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, teams will continue to throw at Old Greg and he should continue to put up very nice tackle numbers. This week he has a very juicy matchup against the high-powered New Orleans Saints offense who are typically quite gracious when it comes to handing out points to opposing fantasy CBs (e.g. the all-but-dead Richard Marshall put up 9 solos against them last week). Start Toler with confidence this week in all leagues.

Greg Toler

Thanks a bunch for reading and feel free to ask me any specific questions. I want to help you dominate your fantasy leagues!

If you want a little break from the Fantasy Football articles, click here to read my latest "Rants" article.

Until next time, this is The IDP Guru signing off.


Last Updated: October 5 , 2010



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40 comments :

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) said...

Thanks for all you do, Guru! Chung was awesome for me this week! He's the reason I ended up winning, but he and Polomalu are both on bye this week. I've looked at your pickups and am interested in Mays and Whitner, but I also have the following starting safeties on the wire:

Nate Allen, Chris Hope, Louis Delmas, and Dawan Landry.

Toler is already owned or I would add him. We're only required to start 2 DBs each week, so I'm choosing between the above. Any thoughts?

Lance said...

Need a replacement for Gregory in my CB position. Pick up Richard Marshall, who finally showed up last week, Carlos Rogers or your boy Verner?
Also-is it finally time to cut ties with Weddle or does he pick it up with Gregory out of the way?
Thanks a lot for your help.

First Timer said...

Im in a 10 man league which starts 1 of each DL,DB,LB. This is my 1st year doing IDP so these may be a questions like should I drop Bernard Berrian for Andre Johnson or vice versa but I have no clue so thanks greatly in advance for the help. Is it time to drop Weddle and pick up either Chung, Rhodes, Toler, Whitner, Griffen, or Landry? They are all available and seem to be guys who produce consistently. Also I have James Laurinaitis. James Anderson, Shaun Phillips, Brian Cushing and Paris Lenon available among others. Drop & switch?

Anonymous said...

Hey Guru -

First I just want to say you have good taste in TV shows. Currently watching season 4 of Dexter on netflix. About half way through, really looking forward to the finish. Have you ever seen the Wire?

Back to football, I'm in a super deep 14-team IDP, PPR dynasty league. Pretty weak at DE with Keisel, Dockett, Avril and Morgan. Unfortunately Morgan is out with a season ending injury so I need someone to replace him with. In this league we carry 48 people on our rosters. All of the suggestions you made are not available on the waivers. Just wondering if you had any suggestions for someone in a really deep like mine. Here are some FA that are available at DE:

1. 356. Johnson, Spencer BUF DEk, Raheem SEA DE
3. 451. Crowder, Tim TBB DE
4. 575. Vickerson, Kevin DEN DE
5. 587. Warren, Gerard NEP DE
6. 597. Nading, Jesse HOU DE
7. 599. Carriker, Adam WAS DE
8. 604. Golston, Kedric WAS DE
9. 607. Selvie, George STL DE (R)
10. 642. Cesaire, Jacques SDC DE

Thanks for all your help.

Anonymous said...

Great article!
I'd like your opinion. I'm having bye week issues, and have to leave a defensive position empty (Chung is sitting, and I can't drop him). So I've decided to drop Chris Kelsay at DE and play a Safety or LB for the higher point possibility.
These players are available for pickup:
Brooking, Tulloch, Diles, Dhani Jones, AJ Hawk.
Which is the best option for points? (Tackle=1 point, shared tackle=.5 points, sack=3points, stuff=1 point, FF=2 points, 1/10 return yardage)

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Just to add to the above post, I have Derrick Johnson in my lineup, and was thinking that he'd be a good candidate to drop for almost any of the above mentioned available players. Which would you recommend to pick up in exchange for Johnson?

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Jonathan (Hickory, NC)
I think Whitner will be the safer choice as he will have more consistent tackle opportunities. Plus, Mays is a rookie and is likely to have a letdown game here and there. I really like Verner this week against the Cowboys. I think Romo is going to throw a ton and I expect Verner to cover Dez Bryant who should be utilized quite a bit in this game.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Lance
As I mentioned in my comment directly above, I really like Verner this week. Weddle has sucked. Plain and simple. But he's actually got a good matchup this week against the Raiders and should have less competition for tackles with Gregory suspended. If he doesn't get it done this week, it's time to cut bait.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@First Timer
Chung is a notch above everyone you listed (unless you meant LaRon Landry and not Dawan Landry, if LaRon is available PICK HIM UP NOW over all of the players you listed). Otherwise, Chung is on bye this week but he's your best option moving forward. I like Toler a lot for a one week pickup. If you have a deep enough bench to sit on Chung pick him up. If not, pick up Toler and try and grab Chung next week after his bye.

Stick with Laurinaitis.

Anonymous said...

What do you think of Belcher going forward? Thanks Guru!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Dexter is quite good. The season four finale is really good! Yes, I've seen every episode of The Wire. One of the best made TV shows ever.

Crowder is your best option by far. He's a good fit for the Tampa-2 system as he is a speed rusher. He's not going to produce a ton of tackles since he rotates out quite a bit. But he should be fresh enough to have some upside in the sack department.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Tulloch is the best long-term option, but he has a bad matchup against the Cowboys. Brooking is the best play for this specific week followed by Dhani Jones. I think Derrick Johnson will still have a good year, but like Tulloch he has a below average matchup. If your looking for a one week filler, go with Brooking against the Titans this week.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I don't see a ton of value for Belcher moving forward since he's not a three-down linebacker. He's a LB4 in my book.

Anonymous said...

Do you see McRath getting a shot now that he's back? If so, what do you think of him?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
It sounds as though McRath will be eased back into the defense. I wouldn't expect much out of him this year with Tulloch and Witherspoon there and with Thornton eventually coming back.

J said...

Guru -

I need a bye week filler for my D flex spot. The following players are available on waivers: David Harris, Chad Greenway, Donte Whitner, Taylor Mays, Keith Brooking, Shaun Philips. Which one of them do you think will put up the most points this week?

The scoring is 1 point for tackles, 1/2 for an assist. 1 point per pass defensed. 3 for sacks and INTs.

Thanks for your help!

Anonymous said...

Awesome advice. Thanks in advance.... If you were in a tough matchup this week, would you play cushing, dhani jones, keith brooking, or greg toler?

Anonymous said...

Guru -
I'm in a fairly deep league. I have 6 LB's on my roster and need to cut 2 ... Of these 4 which 2 would you let go?

Rob Ninkovich
Marcus Benard
Jason Hunter
Frank Zombo
scoring - 2=tkl 1=assist 4=sack 5=int

Your insight is appreciated!
Thanks

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@J
Brooking has the best matchup as the Titans are currently giving up the 2nd most points to opposing fantasy linebackers. I'd go with Brooking for a one week fill-in.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
It's between Cushing and Brooking for me. If you are the underdog, I would go with Cushing as he has more upside but also more risk since this is his first game back from suspension. If you're equals or you're the favorite, go with Brooking.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd cut Benard and Hunter. Zombo is splitting time, but I like his potential as teams are really going to start focusing a lot of attention on stopping Clay Matthews.

Anonymous said...

You have Ball as a waiver pickup ... if Jacob Ford comes back this week what effect will that have on Ball?

Anonymous said...

I'm in an equal matchup this week. We play two idp players. Right now I have poz and cushing in. Which one out of those two would you replace with brooking? Much, much appreciated!

Thoracic Outlet said...

Hi Guru

My IDP league positions requied are DE,DE,DT,LB,LB,LB,S,S,CB,CB,D
scoring settings:
Tackle Solo 1, Tackle Assist .5, Sack 4
Interception 5, Fumble Force 3, Fumble Recovery 2, Defensive Touchdown 6, Safety 5
Pass Defended 1, Block Kick 5

my team for this week is
Cole,Allen, Dockett, Beason, Wimbley, Brooking,Godfrey, Whitner, Cason, Bowman and Quentin Groves who is carrying an injury and I want to replace him (and possibly replace wimbley too). I can pick up a player of any position for the D slot and the available players im considering are:

T Hali, Q Black, G Brackett, A Spencer, T Mays, B Orakpo, J Belcher, Charles Johnson

Since my league scoring is weighted towards big plays, do I go for Hali or spencer (and persist with wimbley) because they have sack potential or brackett who will get lots of tackles but isnt a much of a big play threat? or just take a flyer on charles johnson and hope for some sacks?
So essentially,my questions are:
1) who would you pick up out of those players to replace groves?
2) is wimbley worth keeping or should I replace him with any of those other free agent players?
3) does spencer have any value?
4) i also need to clear a roster space for a WR and the player to cut is either Marion Barber, Jon Stewart or Cameron Wake. Am i crazy to drop wake to hang onto these RBs (my other RBs are AP, jammal charles and fred jackson)? or do you think Wake will continue to be productive enough that I should trying to hang on to him over those 2 underperforming RBs (im hoping they break out this week and build up some trade value)
5) this isnt an IDP question but I need a QB for this week who I may hang on to for the season as a backup QB based on matchups - would you go for Eli Manning against houstons pass D or Joe Flacco against Denver?

(the rest of my team: Roethlisberger, QB (flacco/manning), AP, Charles, Fred Jackson, Marion Barber, Jon Stewart, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Ben Tate, Tony Moeaki, Rackers
DEF: Cole,Allen,Dockett,Beason,Wake,Wimbley,Brooking,Groves,Chung Godfrey, Whitner,Cason, Bowman)

sorry for the length of this message, thanks in advance

Aaron

Anonymous said...

Who do you like better going forward this year, T.J. Ward or Taylor Mays? Thanks for your response

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I don't see Ford's return being that detrimental to Ball's value. The Titans like to heavily rotate their defensive line so Ball's not going to be a full-time end anyway.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I wouldn't replace Posluszny or Cushing with Brooking. Stick with what you have.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I still like Ward better. He has less competition for tackles within the front seven than Mays does and the scheme will present him with more tackle opportunities. Plus, did you see that hit he laid on Jordan Shipley? Cheap? Maybe. Brutal? Yes.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Thoracic Outlet
1) I like Hali the best in the long-term, but he has the Colts this week and he is unlikely to get to Peyton Manning. Brackett is your safest play even though he has a mediocre matchup against the Chiefs. I like Charles Johnson a lot this week, but lineman are to risky to start in a defensive flex spot as they can quite easily goosegg you. I would pick up and start Brackett.

2) I would rather own Tamba Hali than Kamerion Wimbley.

3) Spencer has value (he was on my sleeper list to begin the year). However, he seems to be a slow starter. His numbers should improve as teams focus on DeMarcus Ware more and more.

4)I don't think you're crazy at all to drop Wake and hang onto your RBs. Even though I like Wake a lot especially in big-play leagues such as this, Jonathan Stewart is typically a beast during the 2nd half of the season. I'm not as high on Barber as I think the Cowboys are going to abandon the run the majority of their games and they are going to increase Felix Jones' workload at Barber's expense. But linebackers are much easier to find than running backs on the waiver wire.

5) I picked up Eli Manning in my "big money" league this week and I am starting him. Houston has allowed 337 passing yards a game so far this year and even though Manning is highly inconsistent, he has the potential to put up a ton of points in this matchup.

Whew! Hopefully that helped :)

Anonymous said...

Is Bishop a good pickup with Barnett out?

Anonymous said...

Guru, great stuff. Bye weeks are kicking in. I need a DB to replace Chung. Whitner, Mayes, and Hope are all options. Do you have a preference? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

WE play 2 idp - any position. Would you keep T.J. Ward or pick up either charles Johnson or brooking (both are available)

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I think Bishop is a good pickup in deeper leagues and dynasty leagues. Many people who have seen him play in limited action have been impressed with his talent. The main limiting factor at this point is that A.J. Hawk is likely to stay in during nickel packages making Bishop a two-down linebacker for the time being. If he can stay on the field for all three downs, he has definite upside.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd probably go with Whitner this week over Mays and Hope.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Tough call. Ward has been pretty damn good and has a good matchup against the Browns. I wouldn't try fix what isn't broken. I'd stick with Ward.

Jason said...

Guru
What do you think of Calvin Pace?
I have Vilma,McIntosh and London Fletcher thinking of dropping McIntosh so I don't have a conflict come the bye week. What do you think?
I also have Jason Allen from Miami what do you think of him moving forward? Was last week a fluke(he gave me 2 points)? I have Griffin and T.J Ward also.
Thanks for your help Jason

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Jason
I think Pace is one of the more underrated players in the league; however, he's coming off a fairly significant injury and I still like McIntosh better this year. It depends on how many linebackers you have to start. If you only start two, I would hold onto Rocky. If you start three, your decision get's a little more difficult.

I think Allen's weak performance last week was mainly because the Patriots didn't have the ball on offense that much since they were primarily scoring through special teams. I expect his numbers to return back to were they were in Weeks 1-3.

marflan said...

Guru - thanks once again. If I win my league, I'll send some kind of donation your way... It's helped me a couple of weeks in a row, and I'm once again asking advice. We play one dl/de/dt and one any defensive player. Ward's and bradley have byes, so I need to pick up somebody else. Scoring is 2 for each tackle, 1 for each assist, pass defensed or stuff, 3 for each fr, sf, int, ff or blocked punt, fg or PAT. Toler, michael griffin, dhani jones and brooking are all available. Which 2 would you recommend?

marflan said...

Sorry, I forgot to include Clements is also available

marflan said...

OK - last additions: Bishop, Posluszny, Bethea and Yeremiah Bell are all available too. So much to choose from!

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