2010 IDP Stockwatch: Week 6

I thought I would introduce a new in-season article this year in which I discuss a few players who's fantasy value has either gone up or down depending on their performance, role changes, injury concerns, etc. from the previous week. I will try to get this article out every Thursday for your reading pleasure.

NOTICE:
My email address has changed from theidpguru@gmail.com to theidpguru@idpguru.com. I have it set up so that any emails sent to my old address will automatically be forwarded to my new address. I just thought I would let you guys know so that you could make the necessary changes in your address books.


Stock Up


John Abraham Down Arrow LDE John Abraham (ATL) - Once again healthy, "Little John" Abraham is showing signs of why he is considered one of the game's best pass-rushing defensive ends in the last 10 years (85.5 sacks during that time). He had two sacks last week and has a good enough end in Kroy Biermann playing opposite of him to keep opposing offenses honest. He's not a big tackle producer, but has high DL2 value in sack-heavy leagues.


D.J. Williams Down Arrow WILB D.J. Williams (DEN) - Many owners panicked and dropped Williams after back-to-back disappointing performances in weeks 2 and 3. Big mistake. Williams was seeing below average tackle opportunities during those games which were largely responsible for those low tackle numbers. With the tackle opportunity back to normal the last two games, Williams has registered 18 solos and 7 assists in those games. He's a good bet to finish around 100 solos and 20 assists for the season.


Stephen Tulloch Down Arrow MLB Stephen Tulloch (TEN) - I was very high on Tulloch entering into the season. Why? Here was my rationale: Tulloch posted 94 solo tackles and 27 assists last season as a two-down linebacker. With Keith Bulluck gone, Tulloch became a three-down linebacker and the leader of the defense. I had him projected for over 100 solos and 25-30 assists. Tulloch struggled a bit the first two games of the season but seems to have righted the ship recently. He's put up a whopping 38 total tackles in his last three games! He's an LB1 moving forward. I'd rather have him then James Anderson.


Kerry Rhodes Down Arrow FS Kerry Rhodes (ARI) - Rhodes seems to have resurrected his career in Arizona under defensive coordinator Bill Davis. He's had 5 or more solo tackles in four consecutive games and has amazingly/luckily recovered a fumble for a TD in successive games. He also has an interception. The Cardinals defense has been on the field a lot so far this season and since I don't see their offense improving much, I would expect that trend to continue and Rhodes' production to continue along with it.


DeAngelo Hall Down Arrow RCB DeAngelo Hall (WAS) - I always wonder why people doubt Hall's fantasy value. I've always thought he was one of the most consistent fantasy corners out there. He's had a very solid season so far; he's averaging nearly 6 solo tackles per game and 3 assists. He also has an interception (for a TD), a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. Hall has had 4 or more interceptions for five years running and is capable of solid tackle numbers. I wouldn't be afraid to use him as CB1 in CB-required leagues.




Stock Down

Dwight Freeney Down Arrow RDE Dwight Freeney (IND) - I've written about my disdain for Freeney's inflated fantasy value ad nauseam over the last few months. Even if he had 20 sacks in a season, he still wouldn't be the top scoring defensive lineman in most scoring systems since he hardly ever gets tackles outside of a sack. He had just 6 solo tackles last year that weren't accounted for by a sack. Pathetic. So far this season he hasn't had more than 2 solo tackles in a game. Weak. I'd much rather own Robert Mathis.


David Harris Down Arrow WILB David Harris (NYJ) - I've never been a huge David Harris fan from a fantasy perspective. His tackle numbers have always been a bit low for a top 10 linebacker. He relies on sacks for a good portion of his points (5.5 sacks last season) and I personally don't like to depend on that type of production. So far this season Harris has really only had one above average tackle game and has failed to register a sack. I don't think he's worth dropping since he could go off at anytime, but I don't see him as a starter right now in leagues that only play two linebackers.


Barrett Ruud Down Arrow MLB Barrett Ruud (TB) - Ruud has put up over 100 solo tackles in each of the last two seasons and has established himself as one of the premier names in IDP Fantasy Football. However, this year is shaping up to be a different story. The below average play of Bucs interior defensive lineman has allowed blockers to get to the second level and get a helmet on Ruud who is struggling to get off of these blocks. Combine this with the improved play of fellow linebackers Quincy Black and Geno Hayes and you have a recipe for a down year out of Ruud. I do think his numbers will improve as the season wears on, but I'm not holding my breath in anticipation for another 100+ solo tackle season.


Keith Brooking Down Arrow WILB Keith Brooking (DAL) - Brooking absolutely burned me last week by putting up a goose egg after I recommended him for my pickup of the week. Being a HUGE Cowboys fan, I watched every snap of that game. And let me tell you, Brooking played like sh**. He missed two interception opportunities and a few tackles. The Cowboys opted to bring in rookie Sean Lee for a decent amount snaps in their five linebacker packages which were installed to slow down Chris Johnson. Lee played pretty darn well and I'm afraid that he's going to start taking nickel snaps away from Brooking. If this is the case, Brooking returns to low LB3 value. Plus, he's a pumpkin-pie haircutted freak.


Eric Weddle Down Arrow SS Eric Weddle (SD) - Weddle has been a huge disappointment to owners this season. Perhaps we should have seen this coming as the writing was on the wall. Weddle's huge 2008 tackle production was a result of a piss-poor San Diego front seven and a serious lack of talent at the strong safety position. These two things allowed Weddle to rack up tackles left and right. Now that the Chargers front seven is much improved, there are less ballcarriers getting to the secondary thereby decreasing Weddle's tackle numbers. I see Weddle has a DB4 moving forward.

As always thanks for reading and for your comments! You guys have been keeping me busy! I'm looking forward to your questions, comments, and derogatory remarks.

Last Updated: October 14, 2010



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22 comments :

Anonymous said...

Hi Ryan,
How is Jason Hunters DEN stock these days? Is he a good play this week?

Thanks
Mike

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Mike
I have yet to warm up to Hunter. I'm not really thrilled with his matchup this week as the Jets have done a good job of protecting Mark Sanchez.

JDFreer16 said...

Always enjoy your articles, keep up the good work. I need to start one out of the following in a 4 pt. per Tackle league, I have Dansby @GB, Bishop - MIA, Chung - BAL, Thanks :).

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@JDFreer16
Dansby seems like the obvious choice on the surface. But the Packers are not a good matchup for opposing linebackers as they don't run the ball often. I would go with Bishop against the run-heavy Dolphins.

Dimitri said...

Just traded James Anderson for Jon Beason. I like the move alot, but of course, value the gurus opinion. Thoughts?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Dimitri
I like the move a lot as well. I doubt have much doubt that Beason will outperform Anderson the rest of the season.

Alex said...

Hey Guru, wanted to get your input on LBs. I need to pick 4 the following:

Bishop vs. MIA
Q. Black vs. NOS
Bradley vs. ATL
B. Jones vs. MIA
McRath @ JAX
Tulloch @ JAX
Woodley vs. CLE

And just for kicks, which of these 3 would you start (I need 2 and it's a PPR league)?

Foster vs. KCC
McCoy vs. ATL
Rice @ NEP

Thanks again for the help!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Alex
Bradley
Tulloch
Bishop
Woodley

Bradley has a fantasic matchup against the Falcons who are currently giving up the most points to opposing linebackers.

Tulloch is matchup independent and is an every week starter.

Bishop has a really good matchup vs. Miami and should put up solid numbers even though he may only be a two-down linebacker.

Woodley should have a good amount of big-play opportunities against the pathetic Browns.

I think you definitely start Ray Rice against the Patriots as their defense has actually been quite bad this year and I would go with Arian Foster against the Falcons.

Alex said...

Hey, thanks for the response. Just realized I made a mistake. I forgot to add Chad Greenway to that list. He is playing against DAL this Sunday. Would you start him over any of the 4 LBs you already recommended?

Woj said...

Im in a tackle heavy league I need to start two dbs. I have T.J Ward against Pit. and Jason Allen against GB or Ten/Griffin against Jac. I also need to start 2 LBs I have Vilma,Bishop, and Fletcher? Leaning towards Ward & Allen and Vilma & Bishop but I am playing a tie breaker game and would like your opinion. Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Alex
I'd start him over Woodley. Greenway has been a beast this year and even though Dallas isn't typically a good matchup, Greenway is an every week starter until proven otherwise.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Woj
I'd start TJ Ward and Griffin. And Vilma and Bishop.

Daniel said...

How would you rank these players for the rest of the season?
(scoring rules: 2pts solo, 1pt assist, 5pts sack, 6pts int, 2pts pass def)

lb: Geno Hayes, Kevin Burnett, Desmond Bishop
db: Godfrey Charles, Kerry Rhodes, Donte Whitner, Chris Hope, Eric Weddle

I'm leaning towards Bishop and Whitner, who both seem to have above average tackle opportunities the rest of the season. But Burnett's also been productive...

Thanks in advance for any thoughts!

John said...

Three of four for this week: Urlacher, Bishop, Fletcher and Tatupu.
I'm leaning toward Urlacher, Fletcher and ... Not sure about Tatupu @ Chi or Bishop vs Mia
Thanks for your help!

Anonymous said...

Hey guru,

Which of these should I start?
Osi or Chris Clemons OR should I just go pick up Stephen Tulloch
I already have Pollard, Session and Bishop-
Which 3 would you start? Hope I didn't confuse you!
Thanks!!!!!!

J said...

Hey Guru,

I was offered greg jennings for ochocinco and Julius Peppers and am strongly considering it. I have a high waiver and some idiot dropped Jared Allen.

My question is who would you rather have Peppers or Allen? Do you think Allen will pick it up?

solo tack=1, assist=.5, pass defense=1, sack=3, int=3

Thanks!!!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Daniel
LB: Bishop, Hayes, Burnett
DB: Whitner, Rhodes, Godfrey, Hope, Weddle

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@John
Urlacher, Bishop, and Fletcher

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd grab Tulloch. He's a beast. I'd start Pollard, Bishop, and Tulloch.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@J
I'd still rather have Allen.

Anonymous said...

Hi Guru ... I need a 3rd party look at who I should start at LB this week please. My league stats are 2=Tkl 1=assist 4=sack 5=int.
This is a deep league so don't laugh too loud at who I have to choose from! :-)

Urlacher
Ware
Ninkovich
Hunter
Zombo

I was looking at playing Urlacher, Ware and Hunter this week. Would you go with that lineup?
Thanks
Mike

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd go with Urlacher, Ware, and Ninkovich. The Jets have done a good job protecting Sanchez and Ninkovich has a really nice matchup against the run-heavy Ravens.

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Also, when asking for weekly matchup advice please mention the weekly opponent for each player you are listing. This helps me answer questions more quickly.
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