2010 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 4

First off, I apologize for the lateness of this article. I try to have my waiver wire article out by Tuesday afternoon, but sometimes life interferes and sidetracks us from certain duties. I was in Chicago over the weekend visiting some close friends and got behind on work. Additionally, I am now doing the IDP Forward Projections for Footballguys.com, which take a significant amount of time away from my writing on this website.

Well, enough talk about my boring, mundane life. Let's talk some IDP Fantasy Football.

A few things I learned last week:

1) The New England defense is BAD. Their IDPs should be on the field quite a bit this season which is good news for Jerod Mayo and Patrick Chung owners.
2) The Giants once again used their "Big Base" defensive package quite a bit and the linebacker numbers suffered as a result. I wouldn't touch any of the NYG linebackers this season except for possibly Michael Boley against pass-heavy offenses.
3) The Lions are incredibly thin at linebacker and are allowing running backs to get to the 2nd level on a lot of plays. This should be good for C.C. Brown and Louis Delmas' fantasy value.
4) The Rams scorekeeper continues to be a stingy a-hole and not hand out assists. I have to devalue any IDP playing for or against the Rams when they play in St. Louis.
5) David Hawthorne finally broke out with 9 tackles last game. I'm not buying his value though. I see this game as somewhat of a fluke. Show me again next week and I'll buy it.

Now let's take a look at the waiver wire suggestions for this week:


DL

1. LDE Alex Brown (NO) vs. CAR - Brown has been a major disappointment so far this season by posting below average tackle numbers and failing to take down a QB yet. But he has a matchup to die for this week against the Panthers as they have given up nine sacks this year. Brown has been as consistent a defensive lineman as they come over his career and he's due for a good game. I'd get him in your lineups if your hurting at the DE position.

2. RDE Chris Clemons - We've been waiting for this speed rusher to break out and he finally did last week by bringing Phillips Rivers down, not once, but twice. Clemons won't provide his owners with many tackles, but he could surprise you with his end of the season sack totals. ***SACK-HEAVY LEAGUE SPECIAL***


3. LDE Robaire Smith (CLE) vs. CIN - If you're looking for consistent week-to-week production from a lineman, Smith is a good option. He doesn't have much going on in the sack department (man, that sounded dirty), but he's averaged close to 7 total tackles a game so far this season and should see a good amount of plays run to his side this week in the divisional game against the Bengals.


***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

RDE Matt Shaughnessy (OAK) vs. HOU - Shaughnessy hasn't lived up to his preseason fantasy hype primarily because of the heavy rotation used by the Raiders along their defensive line. But Shaughnessy has still managed a respectable two sacks and goes up against backup LT Rashad Butler who surrendered 3 sacks to DeMarcus Ware last week. I'm going with the odds here and predicting that "Shag Nasty" will come through with a sack this week.

Matt Shaughnessy



LB

1. SLB James Anderson (CAR) @ NO - Dan Connor who? Anderson has outperformed Connor in each of the last two weeks and serves as a confirmation that three-down linebackers (no matter the position) almost always out produce two-down linebackers. Coming off a solid week in which he posted 9 tackles, Anderson has another good matchup against the Saints this week. Get him in your lineups.

2. WILB Paris Lenon (ARI) @ SD - I recommended Lenon last week and he came through with 8 tackles and a sack. Even though he only has an average matchup this week against the Chargers, Lenon is still worth a pickup as he has shown that he can be matchup independent. Ride this hot hand while you can.

SIDE NOTE: I kind of wished I owned London Fletcher. Then I would have "London" and "Paris." Ba dump!

3. WLB Ashlee Palmer (DET) @ GB - With WLB Zack Follett out after suffering a concussion in Week 2, Palmer saw a good amount of action last week against the Vikings and put up a respectable six tackles. DeAndre Levy suffered a right ankle injury in that game to compound his groin injury and is questionable to play this week. If both Levy and Follett are out this week, Palmer becomes a decent flex play by default. If you're in one of those crazy deep IDP leagues and need a one week filler, Palmer has a good shot at being your man.
***SUPER-DUPER, DEEP LEAGUE SPECIAL***

4. WLB Zac Diles (HOU) @ OAK - Zac has really been dialing it in this season (pun intended). I stated in Week 1 that I didn't think his production was a fluke as Diles has shown us good fantasy production in the past. With Brian Cushing returning next week from suspension, this is most likely your last week to cash in on Diles' above-average production.

POINT OF CLARIFICATION:
His name is "Zac" not "Zach." I've seen this wrong on the majority of websites.

5. MLB Rolando McClain (OAK) vs. HOU - McClain has been perhaps the biggest IDP disappointment this season. I've seen a lot of owners dump McClain in redraft leagues as there is currently a lot of better options on the waiver wire. But, I think this is the week he finally breaks out. He's going up against the Texans who figure to pound the ball 30+ times against this Raiders porous run defense. Even though McClain has been playing with too much hesitation and not reading plays quickly enough, he is still ultra-talented and I just don't see how he doesn't rack up a good amount of tackles in this matchup.

***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

WILB Eric Barton (CLE) vs. CIN - Barton's actual NFL talent is marginal at best, especially at this point in his career. However, he finds himself in a great situation in Cleveland as he is the current frontrunner to take over the WILB duties from the injured D'Qwell Jackson. He put up 7 solos and 2 assists last week and, with little competition within the front seven for tackles, I expect that type of production to continue as long as he remains the starter. He's got a nice matchup against Cedric Benson and the Bengals this week. My only major concern is that "Mangina" will play musical chairs at this position and not settle on one main guy. However, the upside is high enough to take a risk on Barton especially in deeper leagues.

Eric Barton



DB

1. LCB Walter Thurmond (SEA) @ StL - Thurmond came in for the injured Marcus Trufant and was thrown at relentlessly by Phillip Rivers resulting in 8 solo tackles. If Trufant is out again this week, Thurmond will start and we will likely see similar results. He figures to be a nice pickup in CB-required leagues this week.
***DB-REQUIRED SPECIAL***

2. FS Kareem Moore (WAS) @ PHI - We've seen average players like Reed Doughty put up respectable numbers out of the free safety position in Washington. After sitting out the first two games with an injury, Moore was immediately inserted back into the starting lineup and came up with six tackles and an interception. I like him as a low DB3 with decent upside.

3. FS Michael Huff (OAK) vs. HOU - The Texans have been extra generous in handing out fantasy points to opposing safeties. Even fantasy dud Gerald Sensabaugh put up 7 solos against them last week. It's reasonable to expect similar numbers from Huff this week. He could be a nice one week pickup if you're in a bind.
***DEEP-LEAGUE SPECIAL***

4. LCB Kelvin Hayden (IND) vs. JAX - Hayden's been averaging close to 7 solo tackles a game this season with a pass deflection in each game. Even though no one expects him to continue this pace, as long as the Colts continue to jump out to quick leads in their games, he's going to be a solid option moving forward.

***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

SS Lawyer Milloy (SEA) @ StL - Last week I fought the law and I won. I advised those of you in deeper leagues to snatch up Milloy and he ended up providing his owners with another solid week. He has the advantage of playing closer to the line of scrimmage than most other strong safeties and should continue to post above average tackle numbers as a result.

Lawyer Milloy

Thanks a bunch for reading and feel free to ask me any specific questions. I want to help you dominate your fantasy leagues! Until next time, this is The IDP Guru signing off.

Last Updated: September 29, 2010



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41 comments :

David Larkin said...

Great to see you writing for FBG now, man. I'm a huge fan of your work and I'm also a FBG subscriber, so I can't wait for your IDP takes.

Evan said...

Its me again with the same question....After a poor week last week, I dont know what to do with Clay Matthews now. I have Laurinaitis, who again put up a consistent, solid day. So who do I start? I also just picked up Kiwanuika, because Stylez has a bye, how is your outlook on him?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@David Larkin
Thanks David. I'm not writing for FBG yet, just doing the IDP Forward Projections. However, hopefully if I work my butt off enough, I can get to that point.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Evan
Matthews was getting some pressure on Cutler and has a nice matchup against the Lions this week. Since he depends on sacks for the majority of his production, he's riskier than Laurinaitis who relies on tackles. In weeks in which you feel your the underdog (need a big week), I would start Matthews. I weeks were you just need a steady amount of points, I would start Laurinaitis.

I like Kiwanuka a lot. I had him ranked in the top 12 lineman heading into the season and he hasn't disappointed. I would start him over Stylez White the majority of weeks.

Anonymous said...

Ryan -

I can grab either Milloy or CC Brown. I'm leaning towards Brown due to youth and being in a dynasty league. But Milloy's numbers are little better. What do you think??

Thanks!

MJ said...

Hi Ryan,

I found your site through a link on MFL this season and it's turned into my one stop shop for IDP info. I'm a big fan of the aggregated links to the various weekly IDP columns. Good stuff all around.

What are your thoughts on DJ Williams going forward? He's been disappointing so far but I'm thinking about buying low on him...

Thank you!

Anonymous said...

nice work

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) said...

Hi Guru-

Thanks for all the efforts you put into this. I had a league-mate drop Flowers due to his bye week and our limited bench space. He's scored a ton of points in our league so far. Would you rank him higher (going forward) than Polomalu or Chung? I'm considering picking him up even though it's his bye week in order to start him in the future.

Our scoring settings:

T 1 pt, A 0.5 pt, S 3 pt, PD 3 pt, INT 4 pt, FF 3 pt, FR 4 pt, BK 4 pt, Safe 4 pt, TD 6 pt.

B-Train said...

Ryan - Great articles, I check them every week.

Last week, you recommended Pouha because he was looking good. Were his first 2 weeks a fluke?

Anonymous said...

What do I do with Dan Connor? Would you drop him for Diles or Brooking?

Anonymous said...

Hi Ryan, I read the Packers just promoted Frank Zombo to ROLB. Do you think he is a good pick up and stash candidate?

Anonymous said...

Trevor Laws had a good game against the Jags, is he moving into a starting role or just a fill in last week?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd go with Milloy. He's in a good situation as the in-the-box safety in Seattle and should continue to put up strong tackle numbers especially if Seattle continues to use 6 DBs in their subpackages. Plus, he has way more job security than C.C. Brown who couldn't cover "rock" if he was "paper".

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@MJ
Williams should be fine. So far this season he's seen slightly below average tackle opportunities which should level out as the season progresses.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Jonathan (Hickory, NC)
I would NOT rank him higher than Polamalu or Chung. More times than not you want to start a safety over a cornerback. Flowers is one of the best fantasy cornerbacks but not good enough to unseat Mr. Head and Shoulders and especially not Wang Chung.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@B-Train
Pouha put up very "poo"-like numbers last week. It's probably a bit too early to tell if his first two weeks' production was an aberration. However, his matchup this week against the Bills is not a good week. So don't be afraid to drop him.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Connor will have good games against run-heavy teams and bad games against pass-heavy teams. If you have a deep enough bench, I would keep him because he has good value as a matchup-type IDP. Brooking is solid but on bye, he should be a good LB3 moving forward. Diles is a very nice pickup for this week, but will likely head back to the bench next week when Cushing returns from suspension.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
As far as I know, Laws is still a reserve player. The Eagles like to use a heavy rotation along their defensive line (except for T. Cole) especially in the interior and that negates a lot of their value.

Anonymous said...

Hey Ryan!! This is my first time to your site--AWESOME!!
I need your advice- We start 3 IDP players in our league-I have Benard Pollard-Laurinitis and Sean Weatherspoon-I'm feeling a need for a change with LAURINITAS OR POLLARD. I'm feeling I need to make more of an impact! Any recommendations or players would be GREAT!!! Thanks and keep up the good work!!

Anonymous said...

Ryan, nice call for me to keep Tamba Hali last week!! Got 11 points in DL spot, and I won by 6 pts, My question this week, Posluszny is available for pickup in my league. Do you think i should start him this week coming off injury, or play it safe with one of your LB pickups for the week? Thanks.

J said...

Guru,

I can start 2 LBs and have 1 D flex spot which I usually use to start another LB. I currently carry 4 LBs for these three spots. Ray Lewis, Karlos Dansby, Jon Beason and Timmons.

However, Curtis Lofton and David Harris are now available on waivers.

The scoring is 1 point for tackles, 1/2 for an assist. 1 point per pass defenced. 3 for sacks and INTs.

Should I drop any of my players for the above mentioned guys? Who is most expendable? Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Which 1 should I pick up of these DL's:
-Darnell Dockett
-Alex Brown
-Brian Orakpo

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Lauriniatis and Pollard are both top-level options and should be started every week. The same thing could be possibly argued for Weatherspoon as well. However, Weatherspoon missed practiced on Wednesday, so keep your eye on that.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I think Posluszny will be fine. He's been injured so much that he should be use to coming back quickly. He's in an ideal situation and I expect the Jets to run the ball a lot. I would pick him up.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@J
Man, I can't believe Lofton and Harris are available in your league. I like Lofton better than Harris because of his greater consistency from week to week. I see Ray Lewis as having the least upside of your linebackers. Timmons will likely come back down to earth a bit in the following weeks, but he's too hot to drop. I would probably drop Lewis for Lofton.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I really like anyone on the Saints front four this week against the Panthers offensive line. I would roll with Alex Brown.

Anonymous said...

I had a CB hole I had to fill due to Brandon Flowers being on bye, and since I have to play CB as apposed to an any DB option, I picked up who I thought would have the best week of who was available; Tramon Williams. He has the potential for a monster game in how he's a big play threat as well as he gets return yardage. But a few other options I've been eyeballing are on waivers in my league like Courtland Finnegan, Vontae Davis, Nate Clements, Zack Bowman and Jacob Lacey. Should I roll with Williams or would you recommend any of the aforementioned. (*Side note: I do have enough roster space to keep this pickup so your answer can be based on long term payoff if you want).

Anonymous said...

Guru,
If Weatherspoon can't go Sunday, who do you recommend to pick up from your waiver wire (2 or 3 names would be great just in case they're already gone).
Thanks Bro!

Anonymous said...

What do you think of Pierre-Paul now that Kiwanuka is out?

Anonymous said...

Do you think Mount Cody will put up numbers worthy of a spot in a DT required league? I know he hasn't played yet, but think he may see some action this week.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd go with Tramon Williams. He has the most upside of any of the guys you listed.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
If Weatherspoon can't go, James Anderson should have a good game against New Orleans and their spread offense. I think McClain breaks out against Houston this week as they will probably use Arian Foster quite heavily. I also think Diles will have a solid game.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Pierre-Paul could have some decent value this week as Kiwanuka is out and Umenyiora may not play either. However, his run support skills are quite weak at this point and will only be used in passing situations. He is a better play in big-play leagues than in tackle-heavy leagues.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I won't wait a week or two and see how the Ravens use Cody before picking him up. They have one of the better NTs in the league there in Kelly Gregg and may choose to bring Cody along slowly.

Anonymous said...

Great info!!! Thanks Ryan!!

Anonymous said...

Guru, Do you think there is a chance that Daryl Tapp will turn it up this year and be a good sleeper DL ?

Anonymous said...

Hi Guru, appreciate the good info ... I need a 4th LB to start this week, need to pull whats left on the wire, M Benard, J Hunter, R Ninkovich and see a new LB F Zombo being ranked around these guys ... I know they're bottom of the barrel but need a quick ranking if you would please.
Thanks
Dave

Anonymous said...

Great site! I am right to drop Timmons vs Baltimore with a banged up ray rice, and pick up posluszny vs NYJ this week? Thank you!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Due to the heavy rotation the Eagles are currently using, I don't see Tapp heaving a ton of value especially when he has Parker and Graham to compete with. It will be hit or miss with him from week to week.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd probably go with Zombo against the Lions this week. It's a good matchup and he has been playing well.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd stay with Timmons. The Ravens is a good matchup and Timmons has been the #1 fantasy linebacker in most scoring systems. He's just to hot to drop right now. Even though Pos will likely have a very good game against the run-heavy Jets.

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