2010 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 3

Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and we can now begin to start analyzing some of the trends and patterns that will help us more accurately predict weekly IDP performance.

Here are some of the more noticeable trends I've observed so far this season:

— Philadelphia, Buffalo, Carolina, and Pittsburgh have all failed to protect the passer and figure to be great plays for opposing fantasy defensive linemen.

— Miami, Minnesota, Cinncinati, and Tennessee have been some of the more run-heavy teams and have really given up the fantasy points to opposing linebackers.


— The cornerback that goes up against Roddy White is in for a solid tackle day.

— This may be the year to ignore typical IDP rational and pick up a SLB. Sam linebackers Daryl Smith, James Anderson, and Sean Weatherspoon have all put up top 15 linebacker numbers so far this season.

Obviously, these observations are not hard and fast rules, but they are important to keep in mind when you are trying to scour the barrel for that golden nugget IDP waiver wire move.

Before we get to my recommendations for this week, I would also like to point out that three top 25 linebackers are possibily returning this week: DeAndry Levy, Stewart Bradley, and D'Qwell Jackson. If you have a bench, it would be a smart idea to grab these guys off the wire and stash them. They're gonna be good.

Now let's take a look at the waiver wire suggestions for this week:


DL


1. RDE Antwan Odom (CIN) @ CAR - I had Odom pegged as a bust heading into the season. As a generality, I still stand by that prediction as I believe that he was significantly overhyped after a hot start to last season. However, he faces the Carolina Panthers this week who have given up the 2nd most sacks so far this season with eight and who are starting a rookie quarterback in Jimmy Clausen. Odom will get off the sack schneid this week and could be in line for a multiple sack game.

2. NT Sione Pouha (NYJ) @ MIA - "Poo ha" has replaced the injured Kris Jenkins as the starting nose tackle for the Jets. He's had 13 tackles and 2 fumble recoveries in his first two games and goes up against the run-heavy Dolphins. I like this matchup A LOT in DT-required leagues. ***DT-REQUIRED SPECIAL***


3. RDE Stylez G. White (TB) vs. PIT - I'm going to live and die by Stylez this year. He came through for me last week with a sack and he has another good matchup against the Charlie Batch-led Steelers. I'm sticking to my preseason prediction of double digit sacks for the man they call "Stylez."


***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

LDE Derrick Harvey (JAX) vs. PHI - Harvey hasn't done jack so far this season which is extremely disappointing to me since he has the potential to put up top 20 fantasy numbers in his position. With a recently-concussed Kevin Kolb and an Eagles team that has given up a league-leading 12 SACKS coming to town, I'll take my chances on starting Harvey in the hopes he can get in on some the sack action. Obviously, if Kampman is available, start him over Harvey.

Kroy Biermann



LB

1. WLB Michael Boley (NYG) vs. TEN - I will tell you up front this is a risky move. The Giants have been quite experimental with their use of linebackers. In their first game against the run-heavy Panthers, defensive coordinator Perry Fewell decided to use their "Big Base" defense a majority of the game which calls for Mathias Kiwanuka at SLB, Jonathan Goff at MLB, and Keith Bulluck at WLB (and Boley on the bench). Last week against the pass-heavy Colts, it was a completely different story. Fewell went with 6 DBs and 1 linebacker for a large portion of the game. That one linebacker in the game was Michael Boley who ended up with 16 total tackles. Boley has a great matchup this week against Chris Johnson and the Titans who are currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing linebackers. My only concern is that the Giants will go back to that "Big Base" defense leaving Boley on the bench.

2. WILB Paris Lenon (ARI) vs. OAK - This is not a glamorous move by any means. However, sometimes it's the conservative moves that win you your weeks. Lenon has had solid fantasy performances in back-to-back weeks and has 19 total tackles thus far this season. He's a three-down WILB linebacker on a defense that is on the field for an above-average amount of snaps. As Daryl Washington starts to see an increased role, Lenon's value will gradually dissipate. However, that shouldn't start happening for a few weeks.

3. ROLB Tully Banta-Cain (NE) vs. BUF - TBC is one of the more underrated pass-rushing linebackers in the league. He had 9.5 sacks last season and already has 1.5 this season. He plays the pathetic Bills who will be starting an equally pathetic quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tully should be harassing Fitz all day long and is a great option in big-play leagues. ***BIG-PLAY SPECIAL***

4. WILB Roger "Rocky" McIntosh (WASH) @ STL - If you haven't jumped on the Roger McIntosh bandwagon yet, it's time to start. The switch to a 3-4 defense has definitely improved his fantasy value. He's a good fit for the scheme and LFB has seemed to have lost a half-step. Also, the Washington scorekeeper has been more than generous this season when handing out tackles. The Redskins had a whopping 45 assists last week in their home game against the Texans. On the same note, the Rams scorekeeper is notoriously stingy with tackles, so don't expect a ton of assists out of McIntosh this week.

5. SLB Sean Weatherspoon (ATL) @ NO - Weatherspoon has had a larger role in the defense than most expected this early in the season. Interestingly enough, Weatherspoon, not veteran Mike Peterson, has been playing in nickel packages and is the Falcons leading tackler ahead of fantasy stud Curtis Lofton. "Spoon" is only going to get better as the season progresses and may eventually move over to the more fantasy productive weak side of the playing field. He draws a good matchup this week against the ball-controlling Saints. Get him on your rosters, especially in dynasty leagues.


***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

SLB James Anderson (CAR) vs. CIN - I was a doubter of James Anderson's hot start in Week 1. However, another solid performance in Week 2 has changed my mind a bit. Even though he plays on the strong side and has stiff competition for tackles amongst his linebacker peers, he is still a three-down linebacker who plays for a below-average team who's defense is on the field quite a bit. More importantly, I like the matchup against the Bengals this week. Expect a heavy dose of Cedric Benson and plenty of tackle opportunities to go around.

Lawrence Timmons



DB

1. SS Steven Gregory (SD) @ SEA - If your looking for some consistency at the defensive back position, Gregory looks to be a nice choice. He is currently outperforming Eric Weddle and is the Chargers leading tackler so far this season. The SS position in San Diego can be a very productive one, so I don't consider Gregory's production to be a fluke. The matchup isn't superb this week, but I see this more as a long-term pickup.

2. SS Sean Considine (JAX) vs. PHI - Along the same lines as Gregory, Considine has been solid in his first two games of the season. The Jaguars defense figures to be on the field a lot this year and Considine could wind up having a sound season.

3. LCB Jabari Greer (NO) vs. ATL - Playing off of the trend of the first two weeks, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that one of the Saints CBs is going to have a nice tackle day against Roddy White and the Falcons. Matt Ryan has targeted White a ridiculous 35 times already this season. Greer is the best tackling cornerback in Atlanta and should put 7+ solo tackles in this contest.

4. SS Lawyer Milloy (SEA) vs. SD - This is for all you owners in extremely deep leagues. Milloy rebounded last week with 8 tackles after a week with only 3 tackles and seemed to regain control over the starting SS job in Seattle. Even though he's old as dirt and won't provide big plays, he's valuable in Pete Carroll's system and can be had in virtually every league. ***DEEP-LEAGUE SPECIAL***

***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

SS James Butler (STL) vs. WAS - I liked Butler quite a bit heading into the preseason. He plays on a defense with an atrocious front seven who is on the field perhaps more than any other defense. Unfortunately, injuries have left Butler on the bench and allowed his replacement, Craig Dahl, to put up some nice tackle numbers. Well, with Dahl out with a concussion, it's Butler's turn to rack up some tackles against the Redskins this week.

T.J. Ward

Thanks a bunch for reading and feel free to ask me any specific questions. I want to help you dominate your fantasy leagues! Until next time, this is The IDP Guru signing off.

Last Updated: September 21, 2010



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44 comments :

Evan said...

I have a tough week to choose from for my IDP's. We start 1 DL, 1 LB, and 1 DB. I have Tyvon Branch at DB and I have no problem there, and I also picked up Stylez(Thank you very much for that sugggestion last week!), and I plan to continue to start him. My real issue comes in my LB. I have Laurinaitis, who put up a massive performance for me last week, but I'm picking up Clay Matthews so I can have some versatility in my lineup as well as the fact that he has had plus 10 performances 2 weeks in a row. Who should I start???

Cassie said...

Would you drop Erik Coleman for TJ Ward of Cleveland? Not sure about this knee injury. Also, just picked up Timmons and dropped McClain - would you play him over Lofton? Thanks.

FF Star said...

DeAndry Levy, Stewart Bradley, and D'Qwell Jackson are all available in my fantasy league. I have D.J. Williams and Derrick Johnson. My league scores points for the following. Tackle Solo=1, Tackle Assist=0.5, Sack=2, Interception=3, Fumble Force=2, Fumble Recovery=2. I want to pick up D'Qwell but don't want to give up a bench spot. What do you think?

Anonymous said...

We start, among others, DE and CB. Sacks, Int, Fumble Recovery all 3pts; Forced Fumble 2 pts; Stuff, Tackle, Pass Defended all 1 pt; Asst Tackle 0.5 and there's a 2 pt bonus for every 3 Tkls.
Drop Richard Marshall for Steve Gregory, eligible at CB/S on ESPN, or Greg Toler?
And...I know you like Tamba Hali, but he hasn't done anything. Drop him for Chris Kelsay, who has been very solid, or Vanden Bosch is also avail?

Anonymous said...

Drop Kirk Morrison for McIntosh, Weatherspoon, Anderson, Diles or E. J. Henderson?

Tyson said...

Would you drop curtis lofton for sean Weatherspoon???

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Evan
I'd go with Matthews. I'm not a sold that the Bears can protect Cutler and the Packers will be looking to expose the holes in Mike Martz lackluster protection schemes. Ride the hot hand.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Cassie
Coleman is questionable for Week 3. I wouldn't monkey around with trying to figure out if he's going to play or not especially when a player of Ward's caliber is on the wire. Drop Coleman, pick up Ward. Start Lofton. He's still a stud and should bounce back this week against New Orleans.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@FF Star
I think D'Qwell could be a superb addition to your team when fully healthy. The guy had more tackles than Patrick Willis two years ago (his last full season). He's got the talent and opportunity to be a top 5 linebacker. I'd find a bench spot for him but I couldn't justify dropping either of your two linebackers for him at this point.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I think Morrison has to go. He hasn't been playing in nickel packages and his numbers have suffered as a result. I've always liked E.J. Henderson. He gets it done week in and week out. Weatherspoon's got nice upside and McIntosh is going to have a career year. I'd go with Henderson though because of the consistency and proven track record.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Tyson
No. Don't drop Lofton for Weatherspoon. Lofton is still the player to own.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd go with Gregory if he qualifies at CB. Anytime you can get pretty good safety production at the CB position, you take it.

Go with Vanden Bosch. He's gonna rack up a lot of tackles in downfield pursuit and he's looking good for 7 or 8 sacks as well.

Anonymous said...

What do you think of Quincy Black?

John said...

Hey Ryan,

Who would you drop out of these guys to make room for Sean Weatherspoon?

Dan Connor
Chad Greenway
Geno Hayes
DeMeco Ryans
Daryl Smith

Which of these guys would you drop for Steven Gregory or one of those other DB's you mentioned above?

Aqib Talib
Eric Berry
Antrel Rolle
TJ Ward
Eric Weddle

Thanks for your help!

Anonymous said...

Sedrick Ellis coughed up a goose egg last week. I can pick up Turk McBride or Ngata...or do you think I should stick with Ellis?
ReadyMan

Anonymous said...

Fantastic analysis, Ryan! I'll make this short and sweet.

In my big play IDP league (0.75 Tackle, 2.5 Sack, 3.5 INT, 3.5 FR, 2.5 PD) drop Weddle for:

TJ Ward, Yeremiah Bell, Sean Considine, Louis Delmas, James Butler

In my other league (1.5 Tackle, 1 Assist, 2 Sack, 3 INT, 1.5 PD) which LB to add?

Sean Weatherspoon, Michael Boley, Jerod Mayo, David Harris, James Anderson, Rocky McIntosh

Cheers!!

Anonymous said...

Hey Ryan, Love this site! My question is I have Tambi Hali as a DL (eligible in my league). Got a zero last week, has been a little banged up I believe. Should I stick with him, or go for one of your pickups for the week? Thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

Hey Ryan, thanks for the great work!
Do you like David Harris more than any of the following:
Barrett Ruud, Rocky McIntosh, E. J. Henderson or Derrick Johnson?
Maybe a little ranking of these guys going forward? Thanks a lot!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@John
That's a tough choice because all of the linebackers you have are pretty good. I would probably just stick with what you have for now. But if you really want to make a move, I'd drop Daryl Smith.

Aqib Talib probably has the least upside of any of your DBs and he'd be the guy I'd drop.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I'd go with Ngata. But I still like Ellis.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Yeremiah Bell is perhaps the best tackling fantasy DB there is, but is devalued because fo the scoring system. Delmas would probably get my vote because of his big-play upside.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
As for your other question, I'd add David Harris. I'm expecting a huge week for him this week against he Dolphins.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I like Hali's potential a lot, but he did get hurt. I'd watch his status very carefully this week. I still think he will outproduce all of the guys I've mentioned in my article.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I like David Harris better than all of those guys expect perhaps Ruud. Harris is a top 10 talent and has a great matchup this week against the Dolphins. People are giving up on him too early.

Anonymous said...

@Ryan Sitzmann
Ok, that's what I'm thinking too. Harris was just dropped in my league though, so which one of them would you drop to get him (Rocky McIntosh, E. J. Henderson or Derrick Johnson?)

Anonymous said...

What do you think of Quincy Black and Tim Crowder?

Dwight said...

I'm in a league that only starts 1 defensive player position. I have Beason and David Harris but there are lots of points on waivers after 2 weeks so I'm think of dropping Harris for 1 of the guys below.

What is your week 3 ranking for these guys and does it make sense to drop Harris for one of them and just play matchups each week since top scoring players are always going to be available? ...
1/tackle. .5/asst, 2/fumble rec, 2/int, 3/sacks

Lawrence Timmons @ Bucs (23.5 tackles and 24.5pts/season)

TJ Ward @ Ravens (20 tackles and 20.5 pts/season) More 3 and outs should mean more time on the field for Ward right?

Derrick Johnson vs 9ers (18.5 tackles and 19pts/season)

Patrick Chung vs Bills (19.5 tack and 19.5pts/season)

Greg Toler vs Raiders (20.5 tack and 23pts /season)

Rocky McIntosh @ Rams
James Anderson vs Cincy
Dan Connor vs Cincy

Dwight said...

BTW

Beason has 16pts/season
Harris has 11

Anonymous said...

What is up with Richard Marshall? I see him ranked all over the place but he's done nothing .... I need a good CB and thiers not much left. Do I drop him for any of these?
Jason Allen
Carlos Rodgers
Bradley Fletcher
Ellis Hobbs
Sheldon Brown
Chris Carr

Anyone of these worth a pick up for RM?

Anonymous said...

@Ryan Sitzmann
Ngata got picked up. I'm in a tough spot this week and need a DE that will produce. I have a bench spot, so I can bench Ellis.
Who would you say would be best:
Chris Kelsay (buf), playing at LB, but listed as a DE
Stylez White
Aaron Kampman

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

I have 6 LB's on my roster now and can only start 3, I'm thinking i prolly need to trim down a bit to make room for some depth at another position. Plus, I keep rereading your articles trying to get everything out of them that I can. I notice that Cameron Wake, Darryl Washington, and Tully Banta-Cain are all on the wire.

I'm wondering If I should drop someone like Geno Hayes or Dan Connor for one of those 3?

My scoring is 6 pts sack, 3 pts FF, 3 pts PD, 3 pts INT, 1.5 pts tackle, 1 pt assist

Thanks Ryan!!!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Black is a nice low LB3 option but has limited upside on the strong side and with Ruud and Hayes competing for tackles.

Crowder is the prototypical Tampa-2 speed rusher and I see him as a KGB-type. He's not on the field enough to continue to put up solid tackle numbers over the course of a season, but he should stay fresh enough to put up a good amount of sacks.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Dwight
Stick with Harris. He has a superb matchup against the Dolphins this week. If he can't produce a good amount of tackles this week, he deserves to get dropped.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Marshall should be fine. The Panthers have faced a below-average number of pass attempts in their first two games. I would give him a week or so before you drop him. He's potential is too high to drop this early in my opinion.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I like all three players this week (Kelsay, White, and Kampman). Kelsay is the safest play in tackle-heavy leagues as he should be on the field quite a bit against the Pats and rack up a good amount of tackles.

Aaron Kampman has a good matchup on paper. But since Vick is left-handed, he won't be coming from his blind side.

Stylez White has a good matchup against the Charlie Batch-led Steelers.

All three are good options. Kelsay is the safest option. If you're feeling a bit more risky Kampman has the most upside.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I wouldn't drop Hayes or Connor.

Anonymous said...

Hey Ryan, my league plays 2 db's and I'm wondering what you would do in my situation...

Scoring is... tck 2pts, assist 1pt, pd 2.5pt, int 3pt, sack 6 pt, ff 3pts

I currently have TJ Ward, Antrel Rolle, Steve Gregory, and Erik Berry

Leon Hall and Antoine Cason are on the Wire

I'm thinking maybe I should drop Erik Berry and pick up one of them, or even swap Steve Gregory for Antoine Cason

What do you think?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I would stay with what you have. I don't see Cason or Hall has an upgrade over any of the players you currently have rostered.

Matt said...

Do you consider the "burgeoning talent" William Moore, who is allegedly "more talented" than 1st stringer Erik Coleman, a solid play this week against that vaunted Saints aerial attack this week? And is Moore a great Dynasty stash? Thank you.

Jason said...

I need to play 2 lbs I have Mcintosh, Fletcher and Vilma I am leading towards Mcintosh and Vilma? I also need to play two dbs safety or cb. I have Tj Ward, Jason Allen, and Griffin-Tenn. Would u drop any of these for Marshall who is available on the wire? Would u drop any of my lbs for Levy,Bradley or Jackson.

Fred said...

OK I was one of the early-D-Harris-droppers you mentioned, but I should still be able to get him back after this week, as low as he is flying on my league's radar (assuming he does what you believe he'll do against the Fins - otherwise he's meh). Problem is, I can't decide who should go from this lineup:

Mario Williams (no way)
Peppers
Kampman
DJ Williams
Timmons (no way)
Briggs (probably no way)
J Anderson
Weddle
Dawkins
Landry
Winfield
R Marshall
Tillman

Our IDP bench is pretty thin - only 4 slots - plus I must start 2 DL, 3 LB, 2 CB and 2 S. I'm also eyeing the DBs that double as PR/KR because we get those yards as well. So should Hobbs or Arenas replace someone as well?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Jason
I would start Vilma and Levy (if he gets enough snaps). Otherwise, I would roll with McIntosh and Vilma.

For DBs, I would stay put for now. Marshall has DB1 potential but I would give him a week to establish himself.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Fred
I'd drop Anderson. He's going to have good games, but he's also going to be inconsistent at times.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Fred
I'd stick with the DBs you have for right now.

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