2010 IDP Stockwatch: Week 4

I thought I would introduce a new in-season article this year in which I discuss a few players who's fantasy value has either gone up or down depending on their performance, role changes, injury concerns, etc. from the previous week. I will try to get this article out every Thursday for your reading pleasure.

In upcoming weeks, I also plan on publishing some articles that cover some of my favorite NFL Betting picks of the week. These articles will probably cover a game or two I really like for the week (against the spread), some player prop bets, and possibly some team prop bets. These articles probably won't be released every week. Just in the weeks in which there are some bets that I really like.


***Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


Stock Up


Mathias Kiwanuka Down Arrow RDE/SLB Mathias Kiwanuka (NYG) - I've been preaching Kiwanuka over Umenyiora since very early in the off-season. So far, that advice has rung true. Kiwanuka has had a sack or more in each of the Giants first three games and is showing no signs of slowing down. He's posting respectable tackle numbers in the process as well. With teams continuing to focus on the more heavily praised Justin Tuck, Kiwanuka will continue to be a force in the pass rush and should see decent tackle opportunity when the Giants use their "big base" package against run-heavy opponents.


Tamba Hali Down Arrow ROLB Tamba Hali (KC) - I have been high on Hali since the preseason and have preached patience with his lack of production. Well that patience paid off last week as Hali took down Alex Smith not once, not twice, but thrice times. Even though the stat line didn't show it, he was playing well the first two weeks and getting pressure on the quarterback. With a bye week to rest his injured foot, Hali should come back in Week 5 more dangerous than ever. He's a solid play in big-play leagues and a very solid play in leagues such as ESPN that classify him as a defensive end.


Keith Brooking Down Arrow RILB Keith Brooking (DAL) - Even though Brooking is 34 years old, he's still a very solid NFL player and is on pace to put up his best numbers since 2007. This increase in tackle production is due to the fact that Brooking has been staying in on nickel packages this year whereas in the previous two seasons he was being replaced by Bobby Carpenter. Brooking remains a solid LB3 and a good matchup IDP play.


Chad Greenway Down Arrow SLB Chad Greenway (MIN) - You will hardly ever hear me recommend a strong side linebacker over a middle linebacker, but that's what I'm going to do. Greenway looked extremely strong against the Lions and was all over the field. E.J. Henderson on the other hand was dropping into zone coverage a lot which limited his tackle opportunities. If I had to choose between the two, I'd go with Greenway.


Tramon Williams Down Arrow LCB Tramon Williams (GB) - Williams is a guy many had pegged as a sleeper in CB-required leagues. He failed to live up to those expectations the first two games of the season but quickly turned that around in Week 3 against the Bears. He put up 7 solo tackles (2 for a loss) and a sack. He should continue to see balls thrown his way as long as perennial Pro-Bowler Charles Woodson is locking down the other side of the field.

Note: Williams is also returning punts, so he's quite valuable in leagues that reward for return yardage.




Stock Down

Chris Long Down Arrow RDE Chris "Not Nearly as Good as His Father Howie" Long (StL) - For being the 2nd overall pick in 2008, Long sucks. Since entering the league, Long has shown glimpses off why the Rams used such a high draft pick to select him. However, that's all we've gotten is glimpses. In fact, this year we haven't even gotten that. It's time to cut ties with Long especially as teams jump out to quick leads against the Rams, his sack opportunities will be limited.


Dan Connor Down Arrow MLB Dan Connor (CAR) - Not to sound pedantic, but I warned people not to overvalue Dan Connor after his monstrous Week 1 performance. Being a two-down linebacker is a huge obstacle to overcome for fantasy linebackers in their pursuit of top level numbers. Connor is going to have some very nice games against run-heavy teams, but is off the field too much against teams that throw a lot to be considered a LB1 or LB2. He has good value as a matchup-type player.


DeAndre Levy Down Arrow MLB DeAndre Levy (DET) - Levy was suppose to be this year's "sleeper" at the linebacker position. However, due to nagging injury issues, Levy didn't play in a game until last week. In that game, Levy still looked bothered by his groin injury and to add insult to injury (pun intended), he hurt his right ankle during the game and looks doubtful to play this week. This is likely a situation where Levy takes 3 or 4 weeks to get up to speed. Most owners can't wait around that long for him to start producing. There's too many good options out there at the linebacker position this early in the season. Don't be afraid to cut ties with Levy in redraft leagues if there is a nice option left on the waiver wire.


Mike Peterson Down Arrow WLB/SLB Mike Peterson (ATL) - Peterson has been a IDP fantasy football staple for quite a while. But I think his time is finally up. Rookie Sean Weatherspoon has been playing a majority of his snaps on the weak side (Peterson's former position) and has also been playing in all of the subpackages. Peterson is currently the odd man out and his numbers have reflected that as he's only had 10 total tackles through 3 games.


Richard Marshall Down Arrow LCB Richard Marshall (CAR) - After three straight weeks with just 2 solo tackles, I think it's time to welcome Richard Marshall to Dumpsville. Granted the Panthers haven't seen a lot of passing attempts, but that's to be expected when your offense is as bad as the Panthers has been. I don't see this trend reversing at all and Marshall is likely in line for a down year.

As always thanks for reading and for your comments! You guys have been keeping me busy! I'm looking forward to your questions, comments, and derogatory remarks.

Last Updated: September 30, 2010



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4 comments :

Anonymous said...

With Hill done for the season, any thoughts on Hawthornes value going forward?

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Hill's presence wasn't what was bring down Hawthorne's value. The Seahawks heavy use of 6 DBs in their subpackages have been keeping Hawthorne off the field and as long as they continue to use these type of packages, Hawthorne's value will be limited.

Anonymous said...

I can only start 4. We need to drop someone to make it through the bye weeks...(Lofton, Ruud, Cushing, James Anderson, Beason, Timmons or Mayo)

Who gets the boot?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Man, that's one hell of a linebacking core! That's a very tough decision. I think in the long-run Anderson has the least amount of value, but he's currently the #1 ranked linebacker in most scoring systems, so that makes dropping him quite tough. Beason is the linebacker that is underperforming the most, but I feel like he will correct that in incoming weeks. I would probably drop Cushing if I had to.

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