2010 Fantasy Football IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 1

Hello and welcome back to The IDP Guru's "Weekly Waiver Wire Pickups." I've been working hard all off-season studying game film, looking at in-depth defensive statistics and ratios, and compiling various resources to make my prognostication skills even better this season.

It's hard to believe that the site has been up less than a year and already has a firmly established following. I want to personally thank all of my readers who make this job enjoyable and fulfilling. I'm working as hard as possible each and every day to bring you the best IDP content found anywhere on the Internet (or print for that matter).

I'm stoked to begin writing my weekly waiver wire articles again. These are by far my favorite articles to write. I will be outlining four IDPs at each position (DL, LB, and DB) that are likely available on the waiver wire in most 12-team IDP leagues. Within those four recommendations for each position, I will give my "Lock of the Week" as well.

And, as always, feel free to ask me specific questions via comments, email, Facebook, Gmail chat, Carrier Pigeon, Morse Code, whatever.

Enough reminiscing, let's get to the goods.

DL


1. LDE Kroy Biermann (ATL) @ PIT - I will be the first one to admit, I wasn't on the "Beer" wagon initially. But a solid preseason has changed my view of him entirely. This guy reminds me of a poor man's Jared Allen. In fact, they probably go hunting together. He's officially the starter at left end over bust Jamaal Anderson and has low DL1 potential and upside if he can get enough snaps. More than likely, the Falcons are going to move him inside on passing downs making him a three-down lineman and thereby increasing his chances of solid productivity throughout the season.

2. NT Kelly Gregg (BAL) @ NYJ - Besides being the toughest guy I know named Kelly, Kelly Gregg is a highly underrated fantasy player. He's consistently been a top 30 performer at his position and rarely kills your team with a bad performance. He's not going to have multiple sack games, but I'll take 4-6 tackles a game out of my defensive lineman. He should exceed those expectations this week against the run-heavy Jets.

3. LDE William Hayes (TEN) vs. OAK - Most of the attention this off-season has gone to 1st round draft pick Derrick Morgan. But that's a mistake. Hayes is a player who is ready to finally make a name for himself in the league and he has a great matchup against Al "Undead" Davis and the Oakland Raiders. The Titans should be able to get to Jason Campbell a few times during the game and Hayes will be leading the attack.


***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

LDE Cliff Avril (DET) @ CHI - Mike Martz may be an offensive "genius," but he obviously doesn't know the first thing about pass protection. Every quarterback that's played under his rule, has been pounded like a 1 cent nail. Lions have perhaps the most improved defensive line in the league and with teams focusing all their attention on KVB and Suh, Avril will be able to fly under the radar and capitalize on great matchups.

Cliff Avril



LB

1. WILB Derrick Johnson (KC) vs. SDC - News out of KC this week is that DJ is going to be the starting ILB over Demorrio Williams. This move makes little sense to me since Williams outplayed Johnson in the preseason and was the starter all of last season. I'm not complaining though. I personally think Johnson is the better linebacker and has the potential to put up LB1-type numbers in an every-down role. I wouldn't trust Todd Haley as far as I could throw him however, and wouldn't be surprised if Williams was the starter in Week 2. Johnson is worth a flier this week against Ryan Matthews and the San Diego Chargers.

2. SILB Daryl Washington (ARI) @ StL - The Cardinals are typically resistant to starting rookies, but they didn't have much of a choice when they had to place Gerald Hayes on the PUP list to begin the season. Washington played extremely well in the preseason posting 24 total tackles (2nd most behind Pat Angerer's 37). It remains to be seen whether or not Washington will play in nickel packages as the Cardinals were primarily running dime packages during their preseason games, but my guess is that he will see enough playing time to be fantasy viable. He's only going to get better and better as the season progresses and by mid-season, he'll be a solid LB2 with upside.

3. SILB Andra Davis (BUF) vs. MIA - Davis has been one of the better 3-4 SILBs in the NFL during his career. He may be old, but he's reliable. He has a great matchup against the Dolphins this week who will get out to an early lead and pound the ball with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams all day. Look for Davis to put up 7 or 8 tackles in this contest.


***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

ROLB Cameron Wake (MIA) @ BUF - The Bills are gonna suck this year. Period. They are without an NFL-caliber quarterback, they have no receivers outside of Lee Evans, and their offensive line is atrocious. The last part is the important part for this discussion. In 134 snaps last season, Wake generated a PRP rating of 19.78 (best among ALL outside linebackers). Now as the full-time starter and three-down linebacker, Wake has the potential to put up monster numbers especially this week against that sorry excuse the Bills call an offensive line.

Cameron Wake


DB

1. SS C.C. Brown (DET) @ CHI - This guy couldn't cover Ronald McDonald at a kid's birthday party. And the Lions know it. The problem is they have no one else to turn to. In order to minimize his exposure, the Lions will be playing him close to the line of scrimmage to help out in run support. Combine this with an improved, but still potentially leaky front seven, and you have a fantasy stud on your hands. I wouldn't expect Brown to hold the starting gig very long, but he's good for this week at least.

2. RCB Lito Sheppard (MIN) - This pickup is definitely a one week special. Sheppard has been forced into the starting lineup due to injuries to Cedric Griffin and rookie Chris Cook. You better believe the Saints high-octane offense is going to be testing Sheppard early and often. Additionally, because of the cover-2 schemes used by Minnesota, Sheppard will be asked to step up and stop the run. Healthy tackle numbers should be expected this week from Lito. He's a deep sleeper for those of you in CB-required leagues.

3. SS Lawyer Milloy (SEA) vs. SF - The Seahawks released Jonathan Babineaux only to re-sign him a few days later, but the writing is on the wall. Milloy is a Pete Carroll favorite and the starter at strong safety. He's been one of the better tackling safeties in the NFL over his career and he's going to be relied on to play closer to the line than most cover-2 based safeties. He's not going to light the world on fire, but he will be solid and he's going to be available in 99.999999999% of leagues.


***THE GURU'S LOCK OF THE WEEK***

SS Pat Chung (NE) vs. CIN - I've been saying it all summer long, Pat Chung is this year's Bernard Pollard. He's in an ideal situation in New England. They have a fairly weak front seven and Bill Belicheck loves to play his strong safety up in the box basically as an extra linebacker. Chung was 2nd in the NFL in preseason tackles with 24 which is a fairly good indicator of his future expected production. "Wang" Chung will be blitzing the QB at an above-average rate as well. He's a Rodney Harrison in-the-making and I bet he's available in almost all leagues. Roster him now and look like a genius.

Patrick Chung

Thanks a bunch for reading and feel free to ask me any specific questions. Until next time, this is The IDP Guru signing off.

Last Updated: September 9, 2010



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21 comments :

Anonymous said...

"Styles" Greg White vs the Browns, or Wake vs the Bills....???? Saw these same suggestions on hatty's site too, do your thang

CJ2k said...

Love that football is back, and love that I have all three locks on my team. Good luck this year!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
Yah, Hatty and I are good friends, so I let him syndicate my content on his website. I would go with "Stylez" White if your league's scoring system is balanced/tackle-heavy and Wake if it's big-play based.

Anonymous said...

Right on Good work thx pimp.......its 5per sack 1 tackle .5 half tackle....So Wake it is......On a side note, how do you feel about Wake long term, great week 1 starter it looks like but still highly unproven. A lot of sites dont have him in their top 50 most of the time.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
He is, to a large extent, unproven. But Wake was extremely impressive in limited snaps last season and I fully expect that to carry over into this season. Double digits sacks are a likely possibility. He carries risk, but also a very nice upside.

Anonymous said...

I am looking for a CB (required) for week 1, and have it down to Devin McCourty, Dunta Robinson, and Glover Quin. We get 2 pts per solo tackle, 1 for assists and pd, and 3 for int. Who do you like this week and from a dynasty perspective? Thanks in advance Ryan. Love your site!

B-Train said...

Good call on Chung.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@B-Train
Thanks. It always feels good to call out an unknown and have him put up monster numbers. In my big money league, I drafted Chung is nearly the last round and told everyone he was going to explode Week 1. They all kind of laughed. They aren't laughing now. Plus, I had LaRon Landry. Between those 2 DBs, I had over 30 tackles!

Anonymous said...

I am an IDP rookie and urgently need some help. With 4 hours to waiver-wire is there any of these free agents that should be pick-up instead.

Apparently Chung seems like the 1st choice, but who should be released?

LB - (3 starting)
I have:C.Lofton/P.Polousny/D'Quell jackson/D.Hawthorne
Available: G.Guyton/D.Connor/R.McIntosh
DL - (3 starting)
I have: K.Vanden Bosch/D.Morgan/W.Hayes
Available: G.Hardy/S.Ellis/C.Ellis/C.Canty
DB - (3 starting)
I have: Y.Bell/R.Harper/Tanard Jackson/D.Goldson
Available: M.Trufant/P.Chung/B.McFadden/J.Babineaux

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous

LB
Well, Posluszny is probably going to miss a few weeks, Jackson still has a week or two until he comes back, and I didn't like how the Seahawks used (or didn't use him) in their game this week. I would pick up Dan Connor. It's a tough decision on who to drop though because Pos and DQ are both top notch linebackers but obviously aren't generating any points on the bench. It depends on how savvy your other league owners are and if you think you can get them back.

DL
I'm not a big fan of Morgan's this year. I would go with Hardy or Sedrick Ellis (unless you mean Shaun Ellis) depending on their specific matchups.

DB
Bell and Harper are studs along with Goldson. I would drop Jackson for Chung.

Hope this helps!

Anonymous said...

I am looking for a CB (required), and have it down to Devin McCourty, Dunta Robinson, and Glover Quin. We get 2 pts per solo tackle, 1 for assists and pd, and 3 for int. Who do you like from a redraft, and from a dynasty perspective? Thanks in advance Ryan. Love your site!

Anonymous said...

If you had to pick, would you go with Hardy or Charles Johnson? I am in a dynasty league and so dynasty implications are a factor. Thank you.

masarume said...

Week 1 is done and thanks to Stewart and Pos going out, I need another two LBs. I picked up Timmons but was wondering who else I should take. Also what's Stewart's value after he comes back from the concussion? Should I drop him?

Below are the top guys (sorted by points) on waivers right now. I was a tad late on D. Johnson.

Clay Matthews
Bryan Thomas
James Anderson
Zac Diles
Larry Grant
Bart Scott
Terrell Suggs
Keith Rivers
Kamerion Wimbley
Gary Guyton
Will Witherspoon
Cameron Wake
Paris Lenon
Shaun Phillips
Sean Weatherspoon
Aaron Kampman
Julian Peterson
Keith Brooking
Rob Ninkovich

Anonymous said...

Dan Connor and Lance Briggs are both available in my Dynasty league. I've got:

LB
Geno Hayes, Ruud, Patrick Willis, Levy, Weatherspoon

Do I drop Hayes for Connor?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I like McCourty from both a dynasty and redraft perspective especially in leagues that reward for return yardage. He should put up good numbers this season as he will be picked on quite a bit as a rookie and should maintain decent value in CB-required leagues after this season.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I think Johnson puts up better numbers this year, but Hardy is the better selection in the long-run. The Panthers really got a steal with this kid. He's explosive and figures to be a very solid DL in the NFL.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@masarume
You have to like Matthews in big-play league. I also like C. Wake in big-play leagues. Diles will be a very solid pickup until Week 5 when Cushing comes back from suspension. Brooking is a good week-to-week matchup type player.

I would go with Matthews if your system rewards heavily for big plays and Diles in a tackle-heavy league.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous
I would drop Hayes for Briggs as he has been consistently a top 15 linebacker. Morgan is a one-year wonder more than likely and still remains a two-down linebacker.

I like Hayes' upside but Briggs is too consistent and good to pass up even in a dynasty league.

Anonymous said...

@Ryan Sitzmann

Put in the bid for Briggs. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Just curious, when do you anticipate these weekly waiver wire pickup articles being posted? Every Thursday? Can't get enough of them!

I just grabbed Pat Chung and am looking to upgrade my LBs, would love to here what you think about Clay Matthews (big play LB), Dan Conner (even though not a 3rd down back), and Clint Session for week 2.

Anonymous said...

@Ryan Sitzmann

I've never seen a site so thorough and yet at the same time so personal in its approach to helping the everyday fan.

I'm going to hang onto Stewart for one more week and see how serious the concussion is. I think I may drop Woodley/Stewart for Mathews at the end of Week 2.

Here's our scoring format if it helps.

Solos=1.4, Assists=.7, Sacks=3.5, Int=3.5, FF=3, FR=2, TD=5, Saf=3, PD=1.5, BK=3

Thanks again for your help!

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