2010 IDP ADP Analysis: Defensive Linemen

Hello and welcome to the first part of a three part series covering IDP average draft positions (ADPs). This specific article will focus on examining the ADPs of defensive linemen.

My own personal drafting philosophy is heavily predicated on finding as much value as I can with each and every pick. Typically the later in drafts you delve, the more value there is to be found and finding this value is what separates the winners from the losers in fantasy football.

In this article, I will be comparing the ADP of defensive linemen (provided by FFToolbox via MFL) to my dynasty rankings for defensive linemen. I choose dynasty rankings over redraft rankings because it seemed the ADPs were more heavily tied to dynasty leagues as opposed to redraft leagues.

I've excluded rookies from this analysis since their ADP seemed to be heavily skewed. My guess is that since many leagues do rookie only drafts that it bumps up most of the rookie's average draft positions into a higher than average range. The rookies are listed in the table for informational purposes, but they are grayed out to keep your focus on the relevant information.

Also, keep in mind that some leagues require defensive tackles and therefore the ADP of these types of linemen may be slightly higher than expected.

The break off point in determining whether a player was "undervalued" or "overvalued" was +/-8 points. When taking a general overview of the results, this specific number seemed to signal the start of the outlying players. Although this number was chosen arbitrarily, it will suffice for our purposes in this article and should allow for some accurate estimates of true value.
For each player that was over this threshold, I wrote a short analysis to sum up why they are either under or over valued.

I hope this helps my readers get a better grasp on where defensive linemen should be taken in most leagues and that it will ultimately take you one step closer to your league championship.


Pos
Player
Team
Overall ADP
Position ADP
My Ranking (Dynasty)
Difference
RDE
69.38
1
1
0
RDE
106.84
2
2
0
RDE
106.88
3
3
0
LDE
119.28
4
4
0
RDE
124.25
5
5
0
RDE
134.50
6
6
0
RDE
149.06
7
9
-2
LDE
179.67
8
8
0
RDE
195.10
9
7
+2
RDE
195.22
10
16
-6
LDT
205.12
11
55
-45
RDE
218.87
12
10
+2
RDE
224.75
13
17
-4
RDE
227.74
14
24
-10
RDE
233.37
15
11
+4
RDE
238.00
16
14
+2
RDE
242.80
17
13
-4
LDE
246.46
18
20
-2
LDE
252.56
19
15
+4
RDE
260.48
20
12
+8
RDE
269.62
21
19
+2
LDE
276.22
22
34
-12
LDE
289.16
23
22
+1
RDE
290.88
24
25
-1
LDT
293.10
25
50
-25
LDE
294.05
26
23
+3
NT
296.95
27
26
+1
LDE
302.68
28
31
-3
LDE
307.52
29
49
-20
LDE
314.00
30
18
+12
NT
320.25
31
52
-21
RDE
338.80
32
21
+11
RDE
339.68
33
51
-18
NT
360.00
34
46
-12
LDE
362.62
35
27
+8
RDE
372.12
36
44
-8
RDE
372.47
37
43
-6
LDE
378.72
38
35
+3
RDE
379.74
39
41
-2
RDE
380.72
40
36
+4


Undervalued Players
1 . LDE William Hayes (+12) - With all the attention on recently drafted Derrick Morgan, Hayes is slipping in fantasy drafts. He did a good job of disrupting plays last season and it's quite possible that he converts many of those QB pressures into sacks this season.

2. RDE Greg White (+11) - I've been preaching all off-season about White's value. He's a great candidate for double digit sacks and solid tackle numbers. Probably the best sleeper DL this season.

3. RDE Mathias Kiwanuka (+8) - With Osi Umenyiora injured and often whining, Kiwanuka should see a majority of the snaps at the RDE position in NY where there is great opportunity to become a DL1.


4. LDE John Abraham (+8) - His value plummeted after a disappointing 2009 campaign. Abraham is back to full health now however and is only one year removed from 16.5 sacks. Ends like Abraham are scarce these days, so don't be afraid to snatch him if you get the chance.


Overvalued Players
1. NT Kyle Williams (-21) - Williams has been good to his fantasy owners the last two seasons by putting up very solid tackle numbers and even throwing in a few sacks. However, Williams will now be playing NT in the Bills newly installed 3-4 defensive scheme and this is going to limit his tackle opportunities as he will now face more double teams. You also have to be aware of Torrell Troup and the fact that he may steal some snaps away.

2. RDE Kroy Biermann (-18) - It seems to me that Biermann overachieved last year and I expect him to fall down to mediocrity. I don't believe that he's good enough to handle a full-time role in the Falcons defense. He may be worth the risk in the DL45-50 range, but I'm certainly not willing to take him as high as DL33.

3. NT Randy Starks (-12) - Starks had a solid season last year; however, he's a perfect situation to bust. First, I'm always weary of players who suddenly have a breakout season after five years in the league. Secondly, and more importantly, Starks will be moving to nose tackle this season which is the black hole for fantasy linemen. Avoid Starks in pretty much every league.

4. RDE Dwight Freeney (-10) - As I've mentioned many times before, Freeney is overrated and always has been. Let someone else draft him in your league. He just doesn't produce enough tackles to warrant his current ADP.

Last Updated: July 29, 2010



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4 comments :

Anonymous said...

For a IDP-rookie, like me, this post is pure gold. Could you maybe add which round the players should be drafted in a new dynasty league. I have no clue if Jared Allen should be drafted in 4th or 8th round... thanks for sharing the valuable information

/Raz

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous

Thanks for the praise. I can add an overall ADP position for each player. For example, Jared Allen's current overall ADP is 69.38. From there you can customize it to the size of your league (e.g. 12 team league = 5th round, 9th or 10th pick). Would this work for you?

Anonymous said...

Tamba Hali? Has he dropped off the face of the map? The reason I ask is because he's listed as a DE in my league and really plays more of an OLB role. I'm looking at him as a last pick of the draft sort of player as a back up DL with upside since I generally wait until the end to get my DEs. I played him some last year and he was decent when compared to the rest of the DLs floating around on waivers. Is he still a good play at around the 40th DL off the boards? (16 team league so 32 DLs start)

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@Anonymous

Hali is listed as a linebacker in every league that I play in and I would assume the majority of leagues in general list him as a linebacker.

However, if your league lists him as a DE, he's actually quite valuable. I went back and cross-referenced DL points scored in my leagues vs. LB points scored in my leagues and Hali would have been a top 10 DL in every scoring system I play in if he was listed a defensive linemen.

With this being said, Hali is a very sneaky play in your league as you are getting outside linebacker production at your defensive lineman position (Ala Terrell Suggs).

This is a guy I would definitely grab. Gauge how knowledgeable your fellow owners are so as not to let him slip out of your grasp.

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