2009 Fantasy Football IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 13

Welcome to yet another edition of "Weekly IDP Waiver Wire Pickups." I'm feeling pretty damn good after last week's successful prediction rate of almost 70%! And I'm looking to improve upon that percentage this week.

FYI, I've recently added another section to my column called "The Untouchables." This part of the column lists players who are owned in a majority of leagues (Source: ESPN.com) and are therefore not even worth mentioning in IDP Waiver Wire Articles. Because what's the point in suggesting players who probably aren't even available on your waiver wire! Obviously, the players on "The Untouchables" list will change from week to week depending on their ownership.

Here are my IDP Waiver Wire recommendations for Week 13:

DL

"The Untouchables":
Jared Allen (92%)
Julius Peppers (67%)

Elvis Dumervil (65%)
Justin Tuck (62%)
Trent Cole (62%)

Mario Williams (57%)
Osi Umenyiora (52%)

Robert Mathis (51%)

Andre Carter (49%)
Dwight Freeney (41%)

1. RDE Will Smith - I recommended Smith last week and produced for me by registering 1.5 sacks. That makes the 5th game in a row in which Smith has had a sack. Smith has a very juicy matchup this week against the Redskins. Expect at least a sack and maybe more.

2. LDE Shaun Ellis - I went against my normal thinking last week and recommended Ellis, a 3-4 defensive lineman, and he failed to produce. I'm not usually that keen on suggesting defensive lineman who play in a 3-4 defense, especially two weeks in a row. However, Ellis has the Bills this week who are the 3rd most sacked team in the NFL and I figure that the law of averages says that Ellis is bound to produce this week.

3. RDT Jonathan Babineaux - This suggestion is for you IDPers who are required to start a DT. Babineaux has been fairly solid this year giving owners a good mix of tackles and sacks. He gets the Eagles this week, who have given up the 5th most points to defensive lineman the last 7 games.

4. RDE Jonathan Fanene - Fanene is taking over for Antwan Odom after Odom suffered a season-ending injury.  As evidenced by Odom's production early in the season (8 sacks in 5 games), this spot has the potential to produce a fair amount of fantasy points. Fanene goes up against LT Jeff Backus this week, who has allowed 5 sacks in 11 games this season and the Lions, as a team, have given up the 3rd most sacks in the NFL. If you need a one week plug-in, Fanene may be your guy.

5. RDE Aaron Schobel - Schobel is facing the Jets this week and when he played the Jets in Week 6, he had 8 total tackles. Also, the Jets have given up the 2nd most points to defensive lineman over the last 7 weeks. Look for Schobel to have a solid game.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
LDE Patrick Kerney
- Kerney performed as expected last week against the Rams by going 4-0-1. This is what I love about Kerney: he's predictable. He usually gets the job done against bad pass-blocking teams. With that being said, who does Kerney play this week? None other than the San Fransisco 49ers. Kerney will be facing the 49ers RT Adam Snyder, who leads the league in  sacks allowed. Look for Kerney to replicate his stat line from last week and possibly more.


LB

"The Untouchables":
Patrick Willis (98%)
James Harrison (95%)

Ray Lewis (82%)

Jon Beason (72%)

Barrett Rudd (71%)

Demarcus Ware (71%)

London Fletcher (71%)

D.J. Williams (70%)

Curtis Lofton (66%)

Kirk Morrison (64%)

Brian Cushing (64%)

David Harris (57%)

Demeco Ryans (55%)

Karlos Dansby (55%)

Lance Briggs (45%)


1. MLB Jonathan Vilma - Vilmaaaaaaaaaa!!!! Although he may not be available in a ton of leagues, his ownernship is way less than it should be. Vilma posted 132 total tackles last year and because of his slow start this year, he was dropped in many leagues. However, over the last 6 games Vilma has really come on (53 total tackles). He's got a great matchup this week against the Redskins and should be in for a great day.


2. RILB Nick Barnett - Barnett has been one of the more consistent tackling linebackers this season and he sometimes even throws in a sack. The Packers play the Ravens this week and you can expect the Ravens to pound the ball in their attempt to slow down Aaron Rodgers, which is great news for Barnett and his crazy hairdo.

3. RILB Lawrence Timmons - This is my high risk/high reward suggestion this week. If you are in need of some serious points from the LB position, Timmons may be your man. Over the last 5 or 6 weeks, Timmons has started to perform like he was expected to coming out of college in the 1st round of the NFL Draft in 2007. He plays the Raiders this week, who are the 7th most sacked team in the NFL. You know the Steelers are going to get to QB Gradkowski, it's just a matter of  predicting which LB(s) do (Timmons, Farrior, Woodley, Harrison). I like Timmons in this one.

4. MLB Paul Posluszny - I've recommended Posluszny the last 4 weeks, and for good reason. He is still only owned in about 1/4 of ESPN leagues and he has another solid matchup this week against the Jets. You should expect his usual 7-10 total tackles and a decent chance for an interception against Mark Sanchez, who usually has a better chance of completing a pass to the opposing team than to his own players.

5. MLB Larry Foote - The Lions face the Bengals this week who finally get starting RB Cedric Benson back. If I were a betting man, I would say that the Bengals are going to run the ball at least 30 times in this game, which means plenty of tackling opportunities for the Lions leading tackler. You can expect Foote to rack up 8-10 total tackles this week.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
RILB Jerod Mayo
- Mayo has fallen through the waiver wire cracks this year, due in large part to an injury he suffered in Week 1 which kept him out 3 weeks. Last year, as a rookie, Mayo posted 100 solo tackles and won defensive rookie of the year. Nobody else in New England's front seven really competes for tackles, so that leaves Mayo with a bulk of New England's tackle opportunities. He has a great matchup with Miami and their wildcat offense this week. The last time Mayo played the Dolphins, he had a season high 12 tackles. You should expect the same production this week. 


DB

"The Untouchables":
Eric Weddle (65%)
Charles Woodson (64%)
Antrel Rolle (59%) 
Troy Polamalu (57%)
Darren Sharper (57%)

Ed Reed (55%)
Oshiomogho Atogwe (54%)
Roman Harper (53%)
Brandon Meriweather (53%)
Daniel Manning (53%)
Erik Coleman (52%)

Charles Tillman (49%)
Gibril Wilson (48%)
Brian Dawkins (47%)
Antoine Bethea (47%)

1. SS Tanard Jackson - Honestly, I think Jackson is a tad overrated. However, he has a superb matchup this week against the Panthers, who give up the most points to opposing DB's. You can expect Jackson to be playing close to the line in order to stop the Williams/Stewart combo this week. The last time Jackson played Carolina, he went 4-1-0 with INT for a TD.

2. SS Bernard Pollard - Pollard has been on fire lately and even though the Jaguars aren't a terrific matchup for opposing DB's, I consider Pollard to be fairly close to "matchup independent" at this point. Expect the Texans to bring Pollard up close to the line of scrimmage to stop the beast known as MJD. With that being said, Pollard should be good for 6-8 solo tackles this week.

3. SS Tyvone Branch - I recommended Branch last week and he burned me by going 1-1-0. But, the Guru is all about second chances. And Branch is definitely a guy you want to give a second chance to. He's plays on a horrible team, which means their defense is on the field all day, and he's in a productive fantasy spot (SS), where Gibril Wilson became an IDP stud. He's got a good matchup this week against the Steelers. Look for Branch to return to his Top 10 form this week.

4. LCB Cedric Griffin - Griffin is one of the best tackling cornerbacks in the game and has consequently had 80+ solo tackles the last two years. He gets the pleasure of covering the Cardinals deadly WR Combination of Fitzgerald/Boldin/Breaston this week. Like always, the Cardinals will throw 40+ and Griffin should have a ton of tackle opportunities.

5. SS Reed Doughty - Since taking over the starting SS job from Chris Horton, Doughty has been a very consistent fantasy point producer. He gets Drew Brees and company this week. Enough said.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
WLB/FS Bryan Scott - This one is a no-brainer. Scott is playing most downs as the Bills WLB and the Bills have a great matchup this week against the Jets. Even if Scott goes back to his normal position in the secondary, the Jets still give up the 2nd most points to DBs. Between Thomas Jones running the ball a ton and Sanchez's unique ability to throw interceptions, Scott should be in for a outstanding day. He's a must start.

I hope you found this article to be helpful!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, suggestions, or derogatory remarks!

Also, every Wednesday, I write an "IDP Starts and Sits" article for Top Fantasy Football Make sure to stop over and check it out for more IDP advice!

Thanks!

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8 comments :

John Bandt said...

"Sanchez's unique ability to throw interceptions" that's frickin' hilarious.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

Seriously, he's thrown 17 INT's this year and registered negative fantasy points 4 out of the 11 weeks he's played. That's what the Jets get for drafting a QB from USC.

Lee Conner said...

Sounds like something out of Chicago.

Anonymous said...

How is Demeco Ryans on the list of untouchables?

He is slow as hell and Cushing gets all the tackles and turnovers.

James Laurinaitis, Justin Durant, David Hawthorne should be on this list.

And for DB's take a look at a guy named Josh Wilson -- he also does kick returns which is a huge plus.

Jon Swift - Self Appointed Knowledge Guru said...

Anonymous at 2:38

Through the power of me copy/pasting and you READING let me inform you as to what the list of "Untouchables" is.

Untouchables - these are players that are owned in a majority of leagues (Source: ESPN.com) and are probably not available in your league. Therefore are pointless to mention. "The Untouchables" is not a list of any players Fantasy Football Value just simply their percentage of ownership.

Here are the owernship numbers for the linebackers you have mentioned:

Demeco Ryans - 56%
James Laurinaitis - 32%
David Hawthorne - 30%
Justin Durant - 12%


I think many of us hardcore IDPers would agree with you that those 3 guys SHOULD be on the "Untouchables" list (aka owned by ~50%+ IDPers) but it simply comes down to casual IDPers going with names they know. e.g. Demeco Ryans.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

@ Jon Swift

I couldn't have said it better myself. Thanks for your response.

Anonymous said...

Need to pick four from this list for this week. What are your thoughts?

D.J. Williams
Kirk Morrison
Justin Durant
James Laurinaitis
Jerod Mayo
Nick Barnett
Stephen Tulloch

Tackles 1, assists .5, sack 3.

thanks.

A.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

I really like Mayo this week against the Dolphins. I also like Barnett, Morrison and DJ Williams. Tulloch has a horrible matchup against the Colts and he doesn't play in nickel packages, so his tackle opportunities will be limited. Laurinaitis' and Durant's matchups are mediocre. And Durant is iffy anyway because he is coming off a concussion. So, I would go with:

1) Mayo
2) Morrison
3) Williams
4) Barnett

Hope this helps!

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