2009 Fantasy Football IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 12

Welcome to another edition of "Weekly IDP Waiver Wire Pickups." After last week's results, I'm feeling pretty good about my suggestions. Hopefully, the trend can continue this week.

I've added another section to my column this week called "The Untouchables." This part of the column lists players who are owned in a majority of leagues (Source: ESPN leagues) and are therefore not even worth mentioning in IDP Waiver Wire Articles. Because what's the point in suggesting players who probably aren't even available on your waiver wire! Obviously, the players on "The Untouchables" list will change from week to week depending on their ownership.

Anyways, here are my IDP Waiver Wire recommendations for Week 12:

DL

"The Untouchables":
Jared Allen (93%)
Julius Peppers (66%)

Elvis Dumervil (65%)
Justin Tuck (62%)
Trent Cole (62%)

Mario Williams (57%)
Osi Umenyiora (54%)

Robert Mathis (53%)

Dwight Freeney (46%)
Andre Carter (46%)

1. RDE Randy Starks - I recommended Starks last week as my "Lock of the Week" and he came through for me with 5 tackles and a sack. I'm suggesting him this week again because he's been very consistent in the sack department as of late and he has a great matchup against the Bills.

2. RDE Cliff Avril - Avril entered the season on many people's sleeper list. However, he has been a huge disappointment this year with only 2.5 sacks. The only reason why I am recommending him is because he faces Aaron Rodgers this week and his offensive line (aka "baby Swiss"). In my opinion, the Packers won't be quite as great of a fantasy matchup for opposing DL moving forward, but they're still bad enough to warrant a start for Avril this week.

3. LDE Patrick Kerney - Honestly, I've always been a fan of Patrick Kerney. He's been one of the most consistent fantasy point scorers for defensive lineman over last five or six years. He has 5 sacks so far this year and I look for him to increase that total this week against QB Kyle Boller and the lowly Rams offensive line .

4. RDE Aaron Schobel - I suggesting using Schobel's teammate, Chris Kelsay, last week and he burned me by going 1-0-0. With that being said, I am recommending Schobel this week because the Bills have another great matchup this week against the Dolphins and Schobel seems to be a more consistent fantasy performer than Kelsay.

5. LDE Shaun Ellis - Ellis is coming off a 2 sack game against the Patriots and has an even better matchup this week against the Panthers. At minimum, I would expect Ellis to generate a decent amount of tackles with Carolina running the ball close to 40 times a game and he has a good probability for a sack.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
RDE Will Smith (not the one from Bel-Air) - Smith has registered a sack in each of his last four games and he faces the Patriots, who surprisingly give up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defensive lineman. I expect to Smith to "Get Jiggy With It" and register a sack this week on Monday Night Football against the Patriots.



LB

"The Untouchables":
Patrick Willis (99%)
James Harrison (95%)
Ray Lewis (83%)

Jon Beason (74%)

Barrett Rudd (72%)

Demarcus Ware (72%)
London Fletcher (71%)

D.J. Williams (69%)

Curtis Lofton (66%)

Kirk Morrison (64%)

Brian Cushing (60%)

Demeco Ryans (57%)

Karlos Dansby (55%)
David Harris (54%)

Lance Briggs (43%)

1. MLB David Hawthorne - How in the hell is this guy only owned in 24% of ESPN leagues? Since taking over for the injured Lofa Tatupu in Week 8, he's had 43 tackles, 2 sacks, and 2 INT's. I picked him up in Week 9 and he's been carrying my fantasy defense. He plays Steven Jackson and the Rams this week as well, so he's pretty much a lock for double digit tackles. I won't put him as my "Lock of the Week" because that's a little too obvious. If Hawthorne's on your waiver wire, scoop him up immediately!

2. WLB Will Witherspoon - Even though "Spoon" has moved from MLB to WLB in the Eagles defensive scheme, he still deserves serious consideration this week as an IDP WW pickup. So far, his move to WLB hasn't effected his stats and, more importantly, he faces the Redskins this week who due to their commitment to the running game and their inability to protect the QB on LB blitzes, have given up the 2nd most points to linebackers this year.

3. MLB Justin Durant - Because of his injury problems, Durant is available in many IDP leagues. In my opinion, Durant is a Top 10 LB when healthy. Coach Jack Del Rio said that Durant will start this week against San Fransisco. The 49ers are not a good matchup for opposing fantasy LB's, but I consider Durant to be matchup independent at this point. With this being said, I expect Durant to at least achieve his usual 6-8 tackles this week.

4. RILB Nick Barnett - Dom Capers has been utilizing Barnett on more blitzes the last few weeks and I can see that trend continuing this week against the Lions, who have trouble protecting the QB. The last time Barnett played the Lions, he went 8-1-0.5. And he plays on Thanksgiving, which will add a little extra excitement to your holiday festivities.

5. MLB Larry Foote - I expect the Lions defense to be on the field for a significant amount of time this week as they play the Packers. Foote should be able to rack up a lot of late-game tackles when the Packers start running the ball to protect the lead. Foote is a fairly consistent tackler and if your desperate for 5-7 tackles this week, Foote is your man.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
MLB Paul Posluszny - Good ole "Poz" makes my WW pickups list for the 3rd week in a row. Either this guy is really good or I have developed a serious man-crush. It still amazes me how this guy is only owned in 21% of all ESPN leagues still. I have recommended him the last two weeks and each week he has produced with 12 tackles. He gets the Dolphins this week, who are a fantasy LB's dream. You should expect double digit tackles
once again this week for Posluszny.


DB


"The Untouchables":
Eric Weddle (66%)
Charles Woodson (63%)
Troy Polamalu (62%)
Antrel Rolle (59%)

Darren Sharper (58%)

Ed Reed (56%)
Oshiomogho Atogwe (54%)
Roman Harper (53%)
Brandon Meriweather (53%)
Daniel Manning (51%)
Erik Coleman (51%)

Antoine Bethea (49%)

1. CB Chris Gamble/CB Richard Marshall - I got two words for you: Mark Sanchez. OK, I lied. I have more than two words. You have to love to this matchup this week. Sanchez and his propensity to throw interceptions (16 so far this year), have not only kept the Jets from winning many close games this year, but have also allowed opposing fantasy DB's to amass a ridiculous amount of fantasy points. Marshall may have the better chance for an INT but Gamble his a slightly better tackle upside. Feel free to plug either one into your lineup this week.

2. SS Tyvon Branch - I picked up this guy early in the season and it has paid off. Branch is second in total tackles (81) for DB's behind Erik Coleman and is still only owned in 37% of ESPN leagues . He plays on a bad team whose defense is on the field a ton and he is in the SS position, which allows him to play closer to the line and generate a higher amount of tackles than any other position in the secondary. He plays Dallas this week, who have been running the ball more as of late. Branch should be good for his usual 6-8 tackles this week.

3. SS/WLB Bryan Scott - I recommended Scott last week and he came through with 9 tackles and a sack. Because he has been moved from the SS position to the WLB position, his value has skyrocketed. Essentially, you're getting a linebacker who qualifies as a DB. And the kicker is, he plays the Dolphins this week, so he should have plenty of tackling opportunities.

4. FS Brandon McGowan - McGowan has been one of the more consistent fantasy DB tacklers. He faces Drew Brees and the Saints this week who will, as always, throw the ball 30-40 times. With this being said, McGowan should be a safe bet for 6-8 tackles.

5. SS Bernard Pollard - Since coming to the Texans from the Chiefs in Week 4, Pollard has amassed 50 total tackles 2 INT's, and 2 FR's. He plays the Colts this week, who typically don't give up a ton of points to SS's. However, Pollard had his best game of the year against them in Week 9 when he went 9-3-0 with 2 INT's. I don't expect Pollard to put up that stat line again; however I could see him with 7 or 8 tackles this week.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
CB Nick Harper - This is a great sleeper pick
this week. Harper had missed the last five weeks due to a broken forearm and is therefore flying well under the radar in many IDP leagues. But his stats speak for themselves, in the 6 games he's played this season, Harper is averaging almost 8 tackles per game and he gets the pleasure of covering Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin this week. Expect the Cardinals to throw early and often
against the Titans last ranked pass defense.
Harper should be in for a great day.

I hope you found this article to be helpful!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, suggestions, or derogatory remarks!

I'm interested to hear what people want in an Fantasy Football IDP blog and will make changes based on what people want.

Thanks!

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8 comments :

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the IDP info, but I don't think Will Smith is a lock to get a sack against his own team =)

Ryan Sitzmann said...

Haha. Thanks for catching that :)

Hash Brown said...

Ever since discovering your blog a only a few weeks ago, my enjoyment of playing IPD matchups every week increased immensely...thanks a million!!!

I do have a question though...when you are picking DE's, do you also factor in the skill level per say, of who the opposing tackle would be on gameday? I would imagine that is a significant factor, especially when an injury occurs to a starting tackle, and his backup is some rookie, for instance.

Keep up the good work!

Ryan Sitzmann said...

That is a very good question. And the answer is yes. That is why I mentioned that, even though the Packers were pathetic at defending the pass Week 1-10, moving forward they probably won't be as bad because they have their starting LT Chad Clifton back, which substantially improves their line.

This is a great article to read if you want to know which offensive lineman is giving up a lot of sacks.

NFL Fanhouse - Sacks Allowed by Specific Players

Hope this helps! And thanks for reading! Feel free to subscribe to my posts by email. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

What are your thoughts on Dwan Edwards with Suggs being out? Hes a DL in CBS

Anonymous said...

Which 2 DB's? Ed Reed, Mikell, Bryan Scott or Bell?
Also, which 2 Lb's? Timmons , Henderson or Laurinitis?

Ryan Sitzmann said...

Anonymous @ 9:46am:

Even though the matchup is fairly good, I really don't like Edwards that much this week. Edwards played DE is 3-4, which is typically not a good fantasy position and its showed this year (only 1 sack). I understand Suggs is out, but I don't see it helping Edwards' fantasy performance much.

Ryan Sitzmann said...

Anonymous @ 9:48am:

I really like Bryan Scott this week. Since he's moved to the WLB position two weeks ago, he's put up ridiculous numbers. Essentially, your getting a LB value at the DB position. And he plays the run-heavy Dolphins this week.

I also like Bell. He's always been a solid-tackler (100 solos last year) and he has a favorable matchup against the Bills. Last time he played the Bills he had 8 solo tackles.

For the LB's, I like Laurinaitis and Henderson. They both have decent matchups and are safer plays than Timmons.

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